摘要
结合武广高铁实绩运行数据研究高铁列车晚点现状,本文首先处理了原始数据,从统计分析的角度研究了高铁列车的到发晚点情况、列车在运行区间及列车在停站作业时受干扰与恢复的情况,接着结合列车运行现状,引入了马尔可夫链,构建了能够描述列车晚点在运行线上传播的晚点状态概率转移矩阵。研究结果表明列车发生到达晚点的情况较为严重,且在区间受到干扰的可能性比停站作业时大,而列车在停站作业时的恢复情况较区间运行时更好;晚点状态转移矩阵反映了列车晚点在运行线上传播及恢复的情况,对调度指挥与优化运行图有指导意义。
In order to study delay situation of high speed data of Wuhan-Guangzhou HSR, this paper first analyzes railway, combined with large numbers of train record the arrival delay, the departure delay, the disturbances happened in sections and at stations, the recovery ability of trains in sections and at stations.Then considering the nature of trains＇ operation, this paper introduces the Markov Chain to construct the status transition matrix of delay propagation. The results show that the situation of arrival delay is not very well, the disturbances happened more frequently in sections than at stations, trains get more chance to recovery from delay at stations rather than in sections; the status transition of delay propagation is able to describe how the delay changes during the trains＇ operation, which can provide valuable information for dispatchers and guidance for the optimization of train diagram in the future.
作者
谭萌
TAN Meng(Southwest Jiaotong University School of Transportation and Logistics, Chengdu Sichuan 611756, China)
出处
《综合运输》
2018年第5期58-64,共7页
China Transportation Review
