摘要
随着气候变化和环境污染问题日益凸显,第三次能源革命已经开始,世界能源结构正在向着多元、高效、清洁、低碳的能源转型。《巴黎协定》和欧洲主要国家的禁售燃油车初步规划进一步推动了能源结构变革,并促进了电动车的发展,但不会颠覆石油需求,未来几十年内化石能源依旧占据主导地位,但化石能源的消费结构将更优化,石油需求增长必然变缓,天然气将成为增速最快的化石能源。为了应对可再生能源的竞争,未来油气工业的上游业务将转向天然气和低开采成本原油,下游业务将更加注重以市场为导向,向清洁化和多元化发展。
As climate change and environmental pollution become increasingly prominent, the third energy revolution is under way and world energy structure gradually turns to efficient, diversified, clean, low carbon and renewable energy. The Paris Agreement and the timetable to ban new diesel and petrol cars made by all major European governments have further promoted the energy transition and help to accelerate development of electrical vehicles, which can not completely change petroleum demand in short and middle term. Until 2035, the fossil energy has still been the largest and most dominant in the world primary energy, but the consumption structure of the fossil energy will be further optimized, the growth of oil demand globally will slow down and natural gas will be the fastest-growing fossil energy. Facing the challenge of renewable energy, upstream oil and gas business will shift to clean nature gas and low cost crude oil. Based on market led growth, downstream business will focus on new clean products and new diversifications.
作者
李伟
Li Wei(Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporation, Beijing 100029, China)
出处
《未来与发展》
2018年第5期86-89,共4页
Future and Development
关键词
环境污染
能源变革
电动汽车
化石能源
油气工业
environmental pollution
energy revolution
electrical vehicles
fossil energy
oil and gas business
