摘要
本文提供了一个关于地方债增长与地区民间投资关系的理论模型。基于多重门限面板模型,对中国1995-2014年的省际面板数据进行实证检验后发现:地方债增长对民间投资具有显著的门限影响效应,表现为地方负债对地区民间投资的负向效应将随地方债增长而逐级递减;受"四万亿"刺激性投资计划影响,2008年后,地方政府债务增长会对地区民间投资造成负向影响效应;分区域看,东中部地区不存在门限效应,西部地区的地方债增长对民间投资存在逐级递减的门限效应;非严重负债省份的债务增长会逐级提高民间投资,但严重负债省份的债务增长会逐级降低民间投资。
This paper provides a theoretical model about the relationship between local government debt growth and private investment in region. Based on muhiple threshold panel regression model and using the provincial panel data in China from 1995 to 2014, after empirically researching, it finds that local government debt growth has significant threshold effect on region- al private investment in China, which shows that the negative effect of local government debt on the regional private investment will gradually decrease with the growth of local government debt; Affected by the ＂Four Trillion＂ stimulus plan, after the year of 2008, local govermnent debt growth would have negative effect on regional private investment ; From the perspective of differ- ent regions, there is no threshold effect in the eastern or middle region, and the local government debt growth in the western re- gion has descending threshold effect on private investment; Debt growth in non-severe debt province can gradually increase pri- vate investment, but the debt of the heavily indebted province can gradually reduce private investment.
作者
周程
张永亮
ZHOU Cheng;ZHANG Yongliang(Xi＇an Jiao Tong University, Xi＇an, Shaanxi, 710049;Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084)
出处
《中国经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期93-105,共13页
China Economic Studies
关键词
地方债风险
挤入效应
挤出效应
门限计量模型
local government debt risk
crowding-in effect
crowding-out effect
threshold econometric model
