摘要
以河南济源循环产业园为例,首先从物质循环利用着眼,分析产业园副产品相互交换关系,形成多种循环产业体系情景;然后,借助系统动力学Stella建模软件,构建"物质—经济—生态"三者之间相互作用、相互反馈的复杂系统模型,模型包含物质消耗、经济产出、污染排放、综合集成4个子系统;最后,模拟输出产业园用地及用地规模、经济效益、污染物排放、生态效益4项17个指标结果,并从多个角度对不同循环产业体系情景及其规划布局方案的效应进行综合评价,优选出经济发展好、生态效率高、污染排放少的规划方案。在规划前期,运用系统动力学建模方法,实现循环产业园的低污染甚至"零"污染排放的规划构想,可为循环产业园建设实践提供新的方法与思路。
In this paper,circulation industrial park in Jiyuan,Henan province is chosen as the case.Firstly,the industrial by-product exchange relationships were analyzed on the basis of the material recycling,setting up a variety of circulation industry system.Secondly,interactional and mutual feedback complex systems model between materials,economy,and ecology was established by Stella modeling software.The model consists of the material consumption,economic output,pollution emissions and comprehensive integrated four modules.Finally,according to different schemes of circulation industry system and its layout in space,the effect of the schemes from multiple aspects were evaluated.The results from four aspects,the industrial park land and extension scale,economic benefits,pollutant emission,ecological effect,including 17 indexes,were applied.Then,good economic development,ecological efficiency,less pollution discharge planning scheme will eventually be adopted.To achieve the low emission even zero emission,the circular industrial park in the early stages of planning scheme is attempted by applying the system dynamics modeling method.It can provide new ways for circular industrial park constructional practice.
作者
刘路云
郑伯红
陈存友
唐艳丽
LIU Lu-yun1,2 ,ZHENG Bo-hong2 ,CHEN Cun-you1,TANG Yan-ti2(1.School of Landscape Architecture,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004,China;2. School of Architecture and Art,Central South University,Changsha 410083 ,Chin)
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第12期65-74,共10页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51478470)
湖南省教育厅科研项目(13C1135)
湖南省教育厅"十二五"重点学科项目(2011-76)
关键词
循环产业园
产业体系
SD模型
综合效应评价
济源市
System Dynamics Model
Circular Industrial Park
Industry System
Comprehensive Performance Evaluation
Jiyuan