摘要
为了探究京津冀一体化背景下港口发展战略的制定策略,研究了天津港与石家庄无水港之间是依托型互利共生关系,基于种群生态学的基本理论和方法,对一般的种群生态模型进行了适当的改进,在此基础上建立了能够反映天津港与石家庄无水港集装箱吞吐量之间关系的动力学模型。利用非线性系统稳定性的理论方法,分析了系统正平衡点存在的条件,以及正平衡点保持稳定的条件,得到了天津港与石家庄无水港能够长期稳定发展的条件。结合天津港与石家庄无水港的实际进行了数值模拟,对模拟结果进行了解释,模拟结果验证了理论分析的正确性。研究结果同样适用于其他港口与其无水港之间长期稳定发展的研究,是政府和相关部门制定决策的理论基础。
In the Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei integration background,in order to explore how should the port make its development strategy,the symbiotic relationship between Tianjin port and Shijiazhuang dry port is studied.Based on the basic theory and method of population ecology,the general population ecological model is improved,and the dynamic model which can reflect the relationship between Tianjin port and Shijiazhuang dry port is established.By using the nonlinear system stability theory,the condition for the existence of the positive equilibrium point of the system and the condition for the stability of the positive equilibrium point are analyzed.Then the condition for long-term stable development of Tianjin port and Shijiazhuang dry port is obtained.Combining with the actual situation of Tianjin port and Shijiazhuang dry port,the numerical simulation is carried out,and the simulation results are explained.The simulation results verify the correctness of the theoretical analysis.The research result is also suitable for the long-term stable development between other ports and their dry ports,and is the theoretical basis for the government and relevant departments to make decisions.
作者
高琴
GAO Qin(School of Economics and Managcmcnt, Hcbci Univcrsity of Scicncc and Tcchnology, Shijiazhuang, Hcbci 050018, China)
出处
《河北工业科技》
CAS
2018年第3期153-157,共5页
Hebei Journal of Industrial Science and Technology
基金
河北省自然科学基金(F2016208092)
河北科技大学博士科研启动基金(QD201250)
河北省软科学研究及科普专项(18456207D)
关键词
决策分析
种群生态学
无水港
互利共生
稳定性
decision analysis
population ecology theory
dry port
mutualism
stability
