摘要
随着我国社会经济持续快速发展，消费者对于高铁运输的需求急剧增长。本文采用多元回归法预测2020年全国动车组客流量，进一步证实高铁有极高的社会需求。然而我国高铁运输存在供需矛盾及自身的结构性矛盾。目前急需充分利用已有线路运输能力，在基本不增加成本的基础上，改进动车组的实用性、舒适性等。本文从成本节约和收入增加两条路径入手，表明应用新型工业化平台及动车组、优化运行模式及开行方案，可为铁路行业寻求新的经济增长点。并基于动车保有量的增加，预测2020年及2025年运行新型列车的经济效益。得出结论：新型可变编组高速动车组工业化平台可大大降低动车组的生产、运行及检修成本；新型可变编组高速动车组可在基本不增加运行成本的情况下大幅增加客运及货运能力，直接增加高铁的经济效益。
With the rapid development of China＇s social economy, consumers demand for high-speed rail transport shows a sharp increase. In this paper, the multivariate regression method is applied to predict the passenger flow rate of the national motor vehicle group in 2020, which further proves the high social demand of the high-speed railway.However, China＇s high-speed railway transportation has the contradiction between supply and demand and its own structural contradictions as well. At present, it is urgent to make full use of the existing line transport capacity, and improve the practicability and comfort of the train on the basis of the basic cost. This paper analyzes the economic benefits of the new high-speed train from cost saving and revenue growth. It is indicated that new economic growth points can be found for the railway industry through the application of new industrial platform and the new EMUs, optimizing operation mode and development plan. Then based on the increase of holding volume, the economic benefits of new high-speed EMUs running in 2020 and 2025 are predicted. We draw the conclusion： the Industrial Platform of Variable Formation can greatly reduce the production, operation and maintenance cost. And the New EMUs of Variable Formation can significantly increase passenger and freight capacity without increasing operating costs, and directly increase the economic benefits of high-speed rail.
作者
肖翔
黄俊辉
康洪军
兰英
李晓月
XIAO Xiang;HUANG Junhui;KANG Hongjun;LAN Ying;LI Xiaoyue(School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China)
出处
《综合运输》
2018年第4期1-7,共7页
China Transportation Review
基金
北京市社科基金:提价后北京市公共交通财政补贴模型与机制研究(15JGB046)
国家社科基金重大项目:促进科技与经济深度融合的体制机制研究(16ZDA011)
北京交通大学重大项目“一带一路”基础设施网络:现状、需求与潜力(2017JBZ005)
中国中车公司《新型中国高铁客车创新模式及经济效益评价研究》课题
中国中车公司课题《可变编组动车组关键技术研究》(2016J011-C)
