摘要
鄱阳湖是长江流域重要的通江湖泊之一,其水位变化对鄱阳湖生态系统结构和功能产生重要影响,认清水位变化特征及规律对鄱阳湖水资源利用和生态环境保护具有重要意义.基于鄱阳湖星子站1970-2015年水位监测数据,利用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall法以及累积距平法定量分析了鄱阳湖水位的年内与年际变化特征,并对水位的突变状况进行检测.结果表明:近46年间鄱阳湖月均水位年内呈现出单峰型变化;年际间虽然水位波动较为频繁,但总体表现出较为明显的下降趋势;鄱阳湖水位在2003年开始发生突变,突变后月均水位和年均水位都较突变前发生显著下降,鄱阳湖面临的洪水威胁相对减轻,而枯水威胁则有所加重.
Poyang Lake is one of the important lakes linked with the Yangtze River, and its water level variation has an important impact on the structure and function of Poyang Lake ecosystem. Revealing the characteristic and trend of water level variation is of great significance for water resources utilization and ecological environment protection in Poyang Lake area. Based on the water level monitoring data of Xingzi hydrological station during 1970--2015, the annual and inter-annual variations and mutation of water level have been analyzed by using the linear trend method, Mann-Kendall method and cumulative departure method. The results show that the annual variation process of water level shows the shape of single peak type in Poyang Lake, and the monthly average water level rises from January to July, then drops after July. The water level of Poyang Lake fluctuate frequently and had no obvious trend during 1970--1998, hut the water level began to show a significant drop. With the linear trend method and Mann-Kendall trend method, an obvious descending trend was confirmed during 1970--2015. The mutation point of annual average water level of Poyang Lake, detected with Mann-Kendall mutation detection method and cumulative departure method, was the year of 2003. The monthly average water level of Poyang Lake was lower in 2003--2015 than that in 1970--2002, the largest water level decline was up to 1.69 m in October, and the smallest one was 0.36 m in March. After mutation occurred, the annual average water level dropped from 13.61 m in 1970--2002 to 12.55 m in 2003--2015, and the average days of the year at high water level decreased, while the average days of the year at low water level increased, which indicates that the flooding threat in Poyang Lake area was relatively weakened, but the low water threat was relatively strengthened.
作者
周云凯
白秀玲
宁立新
ZHOU Yunkai;BAI Xiuling;NING Lixin(Henan University Institute of Natural Resources and Environment;College of Environment and Planning, Henan Kaifeng 475004, China)
出处
《河南大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2018年第2期151-159,共9页
Journal of Henan University:Natural Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41101089
41371450)
河南省高等学校青年骨干教师项目(2014GGJS-025)
