摘要
耕地利用边际化是当前中国山区土地利用主要变化趋势。利用《全国农产品成本收益资料汇编》资料,本文首先分析2003年以来农业劳动力价格快速上涨的背景下,中国农业生产成本的结构变化以及农户的响应,并对比平原和山区农户对劳动力成本上升的响应方式及程度的差异,发现平原地区能够通过大规模的农业机械替代减少劳动投入,进而有效减少劳动力价格上升所带来的影响,而山区因地形条件限制,劳动生产率提升相对缓慢,并与平原地区的差距不断扩大,导致农业劳动力成本占比不断上涨。随着劳动力成本的快速上涨,中国山区耕地边际化特征明显,以玉米为代表的种植业净利润在2013年普遍降至零以下。2000年以来,中国山区土地利用和植被变化表现为耕地面积减少、森林面积增加、NDVI指数增强,而且在省级层次上,山区县范围NDVI变化率与耕地和森林面积变化率分别具有很强的负相关(r=-0.70)和正相关(r=0.91),证实了中国山区耕地当前边际化的发展态势。基于以上分析,本文最后对务农机会成本上升、农业劳动力快速析出背景下的山区耕地利用边际化机理进行了总结。这一研究有助于深入认识山区耕地撂荒和森林转型的发展过程。
Farmland marginalization has become the main trend of land-use change in the mountainous areas of China. Using the China Agricultural Production Costs and Returns Compilation（annual survey data of major agricultural production costs and earnings at national and provincial levels）, this paper first analyzed the changes in the cost structure of agricultural production and the farmers’ responses, under the context of the rapid rise in agricultural labor prices since 2003, and further compared the responses from the mountainous and plain regions.We found that farmers on the plains have reduced their labor input effectively through intensive use of agricultural machinery, which has minimized the impact of the increase in labor price.However, it is a severe challenge for farmers in the mountainous areas to use the same method due to the rough terrains. Thus, the agricultural labor productivity in these areas has increased relatively slowly, causing a widening gap in agricultural labor productivity between the two regions. With the rapid rise in labor costs, the marginalization of cultivated land in the mountainous areas is evident. In 2013, the profit of agricultural production in mountainous China, which takes maize cultivation as a representative, has fallen below zero. Since 2000, the land-use and land cover change in these areas has been characterized by the reduction of farmland area, reforestation, and the enhancement of the NDVI value. The high correlation between the NDVI change rate and the ratio of change in farmland（r =-0.70） and forest（r =0.91） areas in mountainous areas at provincial level from 2000 to 2010, attests to the trend of farmland marginalization there. Finally, according to the analysis results, we summarized the mechanism of such marginalization against the backdrop of the rapid increase in the opportunity cost of farming and the sharp fall of agricultural labor forces. This study contributes to a deep understanding of the development process of farmland abandonment and forest tra
作者
李升发
李秀彬
LI Shengfa;LI Xiubin(Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial InforrnationTechnology and Application, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, China)
出处
《地理学报》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第5期803-817,共15页
Acta Geographica Sinica
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)(2015CB452706)
国家自然科学基金重大国际合作项目(41161140352)
广东省科学院实施创新驱动发展能力建设专项资金(2018GDASCX-0903
2017GDASCX-0101
2018GDA SCX-0101)~~
关键词
耕地利用边际化
耕地撂荒
农业劳动力成本
农业劳动生产率
中国山区
farmland marginalization
farmland abandonment
agricultural labor cost
agricultural labor productivity
mountainous areas
China
