摘要
为了探究教育对生育及“二孩”意愿的影响,揭示其内在机制,本文从作用效应与作用机制两个层面构建研究思路,基于CGSS（2013）数据,采用OLS、2SLS、Probit、IVProbit、泊松回归和负二项回归等相结合的实证研究方法。研究发现：教育对生育及“二孩”意愿具有负向影响效应。教育主要通过“收入-成本”和“文化-认知”两方面作用渠道影响“二孩”意愿。一方面,教育具有显著收入效应的同时也提升了个体的时间价值,从而对“二孩”意愿的影响充满不确定性;另一方面,教育会通过“婚育观念变迁”、“社会认知偏误”和“传统文化割裂”等渠道影响“二孩”意愿。相对而言,“文化-认知”是“二孩”意愿下降更重要的原因。论文的重要价值在于,将教育和生育问题结合在一起进行研究,可为生育政策和相关经济社会政策配套衔接提供决策参考,为我国人口发展战略研究提供前期探索成果。
The objective of this paper is to discuss the influence of education on the willingness of childbearing as well as the fertility desire of a second child and reveal its internal mechanism. Based on the data of CGSS(2013),this paper constructs the research ideas from two aspects,the action effects and the action mechanism, and it adopts the empirical research methods of OLS, 2 SLS, Probit, IV Probit, Poisson regression and negative binomial regression. This paper found that education has a negative impact on the willingness of childbearing and the fertility desire of a second child. And education mainly influences the fertility will of a second child through the "income-cost" and "cultural-cognitive" channels. On the one hand, education has a significant income effect, but education also enhances individual’s value of time, which has a significant negative effect on the "second child" fertility desire. On the other hand, education will influence the "second child" fertility intention through the channels of "marriage and child-bearing concept changes", "social cognitive bias" and "traditional culture fragmentation". Comparatively speaking, changing people’s "culture-congnition" is a more important reason leading to the decline of "second child" fertility desire. This article combines education and childbirth issues together to provide a reference for decision-making on the matching of family planning policies and related economic and social policies, providing early-stage exploration results for the study of population development strategy in China.
出处
《公共管理学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第2期104-119,158,共16页
Journal of Public Management
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY065)
关键词
教育
“二孩”意愿
收入-成本
文化-认知
Education
the Fertility Desire of a Second Child
Income-Cost
Culture-Cognition
