摘要
利用2008-2016年的分省数据,构建多样化空间关联模式,运用空间回归模型偏微分方法实证测度不良贷款对经济增长的空间溢出效应。研究发现,基于区域间金融关联、投资者非理性行为的传染效应会放大不良贷款对宏观经济的冲击,并且在不同的区域空间关联模式下,银行不良贷款对经济增长的空间溢出效应均为负。结果表明,空间关联在不良贷款对经济增长的传导过程中起着重要作用,因此政府政策的实施应充分考虑地区之间的空间关联,防止决策偏误。
Using the provincial data from 2008 to 2016,building diversified spatial correlation models,and applying the partial derivatives of spatial regression model,the paper measures the NPL’s spillover effect on economic growth.The research finds that the contagion effect of investors’ irrational behavior and financial inter-regional linkages will magnify the shock of NPL on macro economy. And the spatial spillover of NPL on economic growth is negative under different financial inter-regional linkages. The result shows that the spatial correlation factors are fundamental to the transmission of NPL to economic growth.Therefore,the implementation of government policies should take full consideration of the spatial correlation between regions so as to prevent the errors in decision-making.
作者
沈丽
刘媛
李文君
SHEN Li;LIU Yuan;LI Wen jun(School of Finance Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014 ,China)
出处
《经济与管理评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期26-41,共16页
Review of Economy and Management
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"新常态初期区域金融风险生成机理及防控对策研究"(16BGL052)
关键词
不良贷款
区域经济增长
空间溢出
空间回归模型偏微分方法
Non-performing loan
Regional economic growth
Spatial spillover
Partial derivatives of spatial regression model
