摘要
信息披露频率会对投资者尤其是非专业投资者的信息获取、处理和理解产生影响。而盈利预测是投资决策的核心,所以不同的信息披露频率下非专业投资者的盈利预测会显著影响着投资行为。基于此,利用2×2×2的实验研究了在季报和周报的披露频率下,非专业投资者的预测行为在收益信息披露顺序和收益数据的变动方向不同时的表现。结果表明,较高披露频率的报告会导致非专业投资者盈利预测准确性和可靠性降低,而两种披露频率下非专业投资者的盈利预测都产生了近因效应。研究结果可以帮助非专业投资者认识到信息披露频率和收益信息披露方向及位置的变化可能产生的影响,进而优化其决策判断,同时为政策制定者提供政策修订参考。
The frequency of information disclosure may have an impact on information acquisition, processing and understanding of investors, espe- cially non-professional investors. Profit forecasting is the core of investment decision, so the earnings forecasts of non-professional investors can signifi- cantly affect their investment behavior in different information disclosure frequencies. According to the situation, 2×2×2 experimental design was used to research the performance of the non-professional investors＇ behavior when the sequence of earnings information disclosure and the direction of change of earnings data are different. The results show that, higher frequency of disclosure reports could lead to lower forecasting accuracy and lower reliability for non-professional investors. Non-professional investors produced recency effect in both case of quarterly and weekly reports. The conclusions can help non -professional investors recognize the impact that different information disclosure frequencies and the change of sequence of direction may lead to which helps them to make reasonable judgments, and provide policy makers with reference to policy revision.
出处
《会计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第2期34-40,共7页
Accounting Research
基金
教育部规划基金项目(15YJAZH114)
山东省自然基金英才基金项目(ZR2015GM006)
国家社科基金项目(16BJL025)
关键词
信息披露频率
非专业投资者
盈利预测
实验设计
disclosure frequency
non-professional investors
earnings forecast
design of experiment
