摘要
目的探讨2010年至2015年常德市丙类传染病发病时空分布特征,掌握高发重点区域,为预防控制提供理论依据。方法利用SaTScan软件进行时空扫描分析,通过ArcGIS软件呈现丙类传染病时空聚集区域。结果常德市丙类传染病在2010年较其他时间高发,为最可能聚集发病的年份(RR=4.16,P=0.000)。常德市中部方向的武陵区(LLR=497.019,RR=1.48,P<0.001)存在一个最可能聚集区域,这个区域丙类传染病发病异常增高,较其他地区呈聚集现象,差异有统计学意义(P<0.001)。单纯空间扫描分析和时空扫描分析同时发现中南部的德山开发区(LLR=277.131,RR=1.77,P<0.001)和北部的临澧县(LLR=136.683,RR=1.27,P<0.001)存在两个次要聚集区域,实际发病数较理论病例数异常增多,差异有统计学意义。另外还发现其他一些地区存在亚聚集状态。结论时空扫描分析方法可以非常好地应用于常德市丙类传染病高发重点区域分析,结合地理信息系统,能够更加直观、全面地展示发病聚集区域,为以后开展针对性的预防控制措施,提供科学参考依据。
Objective To explore the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of C infectious diseases in Changde City from 2010 to 2015, grasp the situation of high priority areas so as to provide theoretical basis for prevention and control. Methods Spatio-temporal scanning was performed by using SaTScan software, and the spatial and temporal clustering regions of C infectious diseases were presented by ArcGIS software. Results The prevalence of C infectious diseases in Changde City was higher than that in other times in 2010 （RR = 4. 16, P = 0. 000）. （ LLY = 497. 019, RR = 1.48, P 〈 0. 001 ）. There was a most likely clustering area in the Wuling area of Changde , and the incidence of C infectious diseases in this area was higher than that in other areas, and the difference was statistically significant. Simple spatial scan- ning analysis and space-time scan analysis were also found in South Central Deshan Development Zone （LLR = 277. 131, RR = 1.77, P 〈 0. 001 ） and Northern Linli county （ LLR = 136. 683, RR = 1.27, P 〈 0. 001 ） are two secondary gathering area, where the actual number of cases were much more than the theoretical number of cases, the difference was statistically significant. In addition, there are other regions of the existence of sub-aggregation state. Conclusions Spatio-temporal scanning analysis method can be applied to the high incidence of infections diseases in Changde City. Combined with geographic information system that we can show the incidence of disease and disease in a more intuitive and comprehensive way, which can provide a scientific reference for the future prevention and control of the disease.
作者
童爽
徐慧兰
Tong Shuang, Xu Huilan(Central South University Xiangya School of Public Health, Changsha 410005, Chin)
出处
《中国医师杂志》
CAS
2018年第3期394-397,共4页
Journal of Chinese Physician
关键词
传染病/流行病学
疾病报告
时空聚类分析
Communicable diseases/EP
Disease notification
Space-time clustering
