摘要
利用NCEP再分析资料（2．5°×2．5°）、常规气象观测资料以及南宁机场（22．6°N，108．1°E）自动观测资料、雷达资料等对2016年8月16日-17日广西南宁机场一次非典型暴雨天气过程进行分析并总结预报经验，结果表明：（1）此次暴雨过程主要由热带辐合带中的热带低压扰动以及偏东低空急流共同影响形成，且偏东低空急流是暴雨出现与维持的主要原因；（2）由于偏东或东北低空急流造成广西出现长时间暴雨的个例较少，易对其缺乏关注而未能在预报中准确把握其影响程度；（3）当引导气流速度较大且天气过程持续时间较长时，难以利用雷达观测资料和外推法及时精确地预报出单点强对流天气的开始与结束时间，不断对比分析实况资料是在短时临近预报中及时预报出强对流天气的萤要方法之一。
This paper used the NCEP reanalysis data （2.5°×2.5°）, the conventional meteorological observation data, automatic observation data in the Nanning Airport （22.6 - N, 108.1 - E）, and radar data to analyze the rainstorm process on August 16 to 17, 2016 in Nanning airport and summarize the forecasting ex- perience. It can be summarized that （1） the rainstorm process was mainly caused by the tropical low-pressure disturbance in the tropical convergence zone and the easterly low-level jet. The easterly low-level jet was the main reason for the occurrence and the maintenance of the rainstorm; （2） due to the frequency of a long time torrential rain occurred in Guangxi caused by the low East Asian or northeastern low-level jet is too low to be ignored, so it is more possible to fail to accurately grasp the extent of its impact in the forecast; （3） When the steering air velocity is high and the weather process lasts for a long time, it is difficult to use radar data and extrapolation method to predict the start and end time of single point strong convective weather in time and accurately. Thus, the continuous comparison and analysis of live data is one of the im- portant methods to predict the strong convective weather in the short-term forecast.
作者
刘箩石
李娟
Liu Luoshi, Li Juan(Civil Aviation Guangxi Air Traffic Management Sub-Bureau, Nanning Guangxi 53004)
出处
《气象研究与应用》
2017年第A02期31-34,共4页
Journal of Meteorological Research and Application
关键词
强降水
热带低压扰动
偏东低空急流
强对流
strong precipitation
tropical low-pressure disturbance
eastward low-level jet
strong convection
