摘要
为了研究茶叶产量与气象要素的关系,基于青岛市崂山区1994—2015年气温、降水量、日照时数、空气相对湿度及茶叶产量数据,利用数理统计方法,筛选影响崂山茶产量的关键气象因子,利用通径分析评价各因子的影响。利用1994—2013年产量资料与气象资料建立多元回归模型,2014—2015年做独立样本检验,结果表明:当5—7月中旬降水量偏多(少),5月中旬—6月上旬平均气温偏高(低),但是该时段最高气温偏低(高),而9月平均气温偏高(低),7—8月平均最高气温偏低(高)时,有(不)利于崂山茶叶的生长和提高茶叶气象产量。同时分析表明:当12月—下年2月日最低气温低于-10℃日数偏少(多),7月日照时数偏少(多),也有(不)利于崂山茶叶气象产量的增加。表明崂山茶叶生长季节适宜于雨量偏多、平均温度偏高,温度变化趋势平稳,极端高(低)温少的气象条件。利用这些关键气象因子建立的影响茶叶气象产量回归模型,能够较好的拟合崂山茶叶产量,研究结果为开展崂山茶叶产量评估与气象服务提供了技术支撑。
In order to study the correlation between the tea yield and meteorological factors in Qingdao city based on the data of the temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration,air relative humidity ayield from 1994 to 2015, statistical metiiods were used to select key meteorological factors affecting Laoslian teaproduction,and patii analysis was used to evaluate the influence factors. The annual output of 1994- 2013 dataand meteorological data were used to establish regression modelnto conductindependent sample test,2014- 2015results showthat when the 5 to mid July more precipitation （less） ,from mid May to early June the average temper-ature is high （low）,but this time the highest temperature is low （high） ,and high （ the average temperature inSeptember low）,7 - August the average maximum temperature is low （high） ,there are （ not） to Laoslian teagrowth and increase yield of tea. At the same time,the analysis shows that when the minimum temperature is lowerthan - 10,the number of days is less （more） in December to February,and the sunshine hours in July are less（more）,and there is also （ not） conducive to the increase of tiie meteorological output of Laoslian tea. The resultsshow that tlie tea growing season in Laoslian was suitable for tlie weatlier conditions witli more rage temperature,stable trend of temperature variation,and extremely high （ low） temperature. The regression mod-el was establisiied using the influence of tiie key meteorological factors of tea meteorological yield,can bLaoslian tea production,the results of tiie study provided technical support for tiie development of Laoslian tea pro-duction and meteorological service evaluation.
作者
刘春涛
魏明明
郭丽娜
LIUChuntao1,WEI Mingming1,GUOLina 2(1. Meteorological Bureau of Laoslian District,Shandong,Laoslian District 266102,China;2. Qingdao Meteorological Bureau,Shandong,Qingdao 266003,Chin)
出处
《中低纬山地气象》
2018年第1期57-60,80,共5页
Mid-low Latitude Mountain Meteorology
基金
2015-2016年度青岛市气象局科研课题立项业务短平快项目(2015qdqxd04):崂山春茶致灾气象因素分析及气象服务思路
关键词
茶叶
产量
气象因子
相关分析
tea
yield
meteorological factors
correlation analysis
