摘要
文章利用VAR模型对入境旅游业发展与空气污染的关系进行实证研究。实证研究表明：（1）北京市空气污染对入境旅游业发展具有阻碍作用。在入境旅游业发展初期，入境旅游业对空气污染的影响微乎其微，而伴随着北京入境旅游的发展，入境旅游业对空气污染的负面影响开始显现。（2）空气污染是入境旅游业发展的格兰杰原因，这意味着空气污染加重，使得入境旅游人数下降，从而阻碍了入境旅游业的发展。入境旅游业发展不是空气污染的格兰杰原因，这表明入境旅游业的发展不能Granger影响空气质量。（3）短期内入境旅游业发展造成空气质量下降。而空气污染对入境旅游发展的负面影响具有一定滞后性。（4）空气污染对入境旅游业发展冲击逐渐增强并具有积累效应，而入境旅游发展对空气污染的影响比较微弱。
This paper study the relationship between inbound tourism development and air pollution by VAR model. The empirical results show that air pollution in Beijing has an impeding effect on the inbound tourism development. The impact of inbound tourism on air pollution is negligible in the initial stage of inbound tourism development. The negative effect of inbound tourism on air pollution has begun to emerge with the development of inbound tourism in Beijing. Second, the test of Granger causality shows that air pollution is the Granger cause of inbound tourism development, which means that the increase of air pollution and the increase of air pollution will lead to the decrease of demand for inbound tourism, which hinders the development of inbound tourism. Third, impulse response analysis shows the decline in the air quality caused by the development of inbound tourism in the short term. The negative impact of air pollution on inbound tourism development has a certain lag. Fourth, the variance decomposition shows that the effect of air pollution on the development of inbound tourism is gradually enhanced and has a cumulative effect, while the impact of inbound tourism on air pollution is relatively weak.
作者
唐洁尘
袁新宇
TANG Jiechen1, YUAN Xinyu2(1. Faculty of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming Yunnan 650093, China; 2. Faculty of Economics and Management, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming Yunnan 650500, Chin)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2018年第4期114-118,共5页
Ecological Economy
基金
云南省哲学社会科学规划项目“云南省入境旅游市场发展研究”(YB2015037)
云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目“环境变化对中国入境旅游的影响研究——以昆明等城市为例”(2017YJS071)
