摘要
随着农业经济的快速增长,农业能源消耗和二氧化碳排放量逐年增加。在此背景下,开展农业碳排放研究意义重大。基于1999-2014年湖南省农业总产值、耕地面积、有效灌溉面积、农药化肥施用量等统计数据测算了15年来湖南省农业碳排放量和碳排放强度,并运用LMDI模型分析了农业碳排放的影响因素。结果表明:(1)1999-2014年,湖南省农业碳排放量和碳排放强度均呈现逐年增长趋势,年均增长率分别为2.25%和0.52%;(2)湖南省农业碳排放各构成要素中,占比由高至低依次是化肥(50.28%)、灌溉(19.10%)、农药(13.83%)和农膜(8.48%),四者累计占比91.70%,为湖南省农业碳排放的主要来源;(3)农业生产效率和劳动力规模在一定程度上抑制了湖南省农业碳排放量的增加,而农业经济水平和产业结构是湖南省农业碳排放量增加的主导因素,应成为未来农业碳减排工作的主要突破口。湖南省农业碳排放的影响因素研究在一定程度上可为"十三五"时期湖南省农业碳减排工作提供决策参考。
With the rapid growth of agricultural economy, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions have increased dramatically. In this background, it is important to do a research of agricultural carbon. Based on the overall statistics of agricultural output, planting area, effective irrigation area, chemical fertilizer usage of Hunan Province from 1999 to 2014, this paper calculated Hunan＇s agricultural carbon emission load in recent 15 years, and analyzed influential factors of agricultural carbon emissions by the model of LMDI. Result reveals that both the total carbon emissions and carbon intensity showed an increasing trend year by year, with the annual growth rates of 2.25% and 0.52%. In the essential elements of agricultural carbon emissions, carbon emissions from the use of agricultural chemicals, chemical fertilizer, agricultural membrane and irrigation process became the largest in the total carbon emission, and also the main cause of the agricultural carbon emissions. The proportion of each factor in the total agricultural carbon emissions were 50.28%, 19.10%, 13.83%, 8.48%, total accounting for91.70%. Manifested from the impact factors, production efficiency and labor＇s scale have limited the growth of agricultural carbon emission to a certain extent. However, agricultural economic level and industrial structure were the dominant factors which increase agricultural carbon emissions in Hunan and therefore should be a major breakthrough to reduce carbon emissions. The study would provide a reference for the task of carbon emission reduction of Hunan Province during the 13 th fiveyear-plan period.
作者
赵先超
宋丽美
谭书佳
ZHAO Xianchao, SONG Limei, TAN Shujia(College of Architecture and Urban-rural Planning, Hunan University of Technology, Zhuzhou 412007, Chin)
出处
《环境科学与技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第1期177-183,共7页
Environmental Science & Technology
基金
教育部规划基金(17YJCZH258)
湖南省自然科学基金(16JJ3055)
湖南省哲学社会科学基金(17JD25)
湖南省教育厅重点科研项目(17A059)
湖南省社科评审委重点课题(XSP17YBZZ032)
关键词
农业碳排放
影响因素
LMDI模型
湖南省
agricultural carbon emission
influential factors
LMDI model
Hunan Province
