摘要
状态持续时间抽样法(State Duration Sampling,SDS)和状态转移抽样法(State Transition Sampling,STS)是两种常用的序贯蒙特卡洛方法,在电力系统可靠性评估中得到了广泛的应用。通过对这两种抽样方法的原理研究,分析了两种方法的计算速度影响因素,进一步推导出了相应的计算速度公式,并结合RBTS系统和RST79系统验证了理论推导的正确性。研究表明,两种方法的计算速度与抽样次数和单次抽样时间有关。两者的抽样次数都随抽样精度的平方呈反比,而状态持续时间抽样法的单次抽样耗时与系统内元件数目和元件转移率成正比,状态转移抽样法的单次抽样耗时与系统内元件数目的平方和元件转移率成正比。
State transition sampling（STS）and State duration sampling（SDS）are two Sequential Monte Carlo methods widely applied in power system.This paper studies the principle of two methods and analyses the factors affecting time-consumed of two methods.Taking RBTS and RST79 system as example,it has proved the correctness of the theoretical derivation.Study shows that computation speed is relative to sampling times and time-consumed in one turn.The sampling times of two methods are in inverse proportion to square of sampling accuracy.Time-consumed of SDS in one turn is in proportion to transfer rate and quantity of components while time-consumed of STS in one turn is in proportion to transfer rate and square of quantity of components.
作者
徐政
陈凡
XU Zheng,CHEN Fan(School of Electric Power Engineering, Nanj ing Institute of Technology, Nanj ing 211167, Chin)
出处
《电力学报》
2018年第1期1-8,共8页
Journal of Electric Power
基金
江苏省配电网智能技术与装备协同创新中心开放基金项目(XTCX201612)
江苏省大学生实践创新训练计划项目(201611276025Y)
南京工程学院科研基金项目(ZKJ201607)
关键词
电力系统
可靠性评估
序贯蒙特卡洛方法
power system
reliability evaluation
sequential Monte-Carlo method
