摘要
目的定量探讨高温热浪对三种常见传染病发病的影响。方法采用间断时间序列分析法(interrupted time series,ITS)分析湖南省长沙市2013年6月30日-8月16日热浪发生前后细菌性痢疾、手足口病和流行性腮腺炎三种传染病日报告发病数变化趋势的改变情况。结果细菌性痢疾在热浪发生后日报告发病数有所下降(b2=-0.20,P=0.30),但随时间上升趋势加重(b_3=0.10,P=0.56);手足口病在热浪发生后日报告发病数升高(b_2=0.04,P=0.63),但随时间下降趋势加重(b_3=-0.18,P=0.76);流行性腮腺炎在热浪发生后日报告发病数下降(b_2=-0.34,P=0.06),但随时间变化由下降趋势变为上升趋势(b_3=3.82,P=0.00)。Durbin-Watson自相关性检验三种疾病对应的DW值介于1.43~1.81。结论考虑到可能存在的自相关性,尚不能认为高温热浪对细菌性痢疾、手足口病、流行性腮腺炎的日报告发病数造成明显影响。
Objective To quantitatively evaluate the impact of heat wave on the prevalence of three kinds of common infectious diseases. Methods An interrupted time series （ITS） technique was used to detect the trend changes in the daily-reported case number of three kinds of infectious diseases （including bacillary dysentery, hand-foot-mouth disease （HFMD） and mumps） during the period of heat wave from June 30th to August 16th in 2013 in Changsha City, Hunan Province. Results The daily-reported case number of bacillary dysentery declined after the occurence of heat wave （b2=-0.20, P=0.30）, but it showed a significantly increasing trend over time （b3=0.10, P=0.56）. The daily-reported case number of HFMD increased after the occurence of heat wave （b2=0.04, P=0.63）, but it showed a significantly decreasing trend over time （b3=-0.18, P=0.76）. The daily-reported case number of mumps decreasedafter the occurence of heat wave （b2=-0.34, P=0.06）, but it reversed from a decreasing trend to an increasing trend over time （b3=3.82, P=0.00）. Durbin-Watson test indicated the possibility of auto-correlation （DW： 1.43-1.81）. Conclusions In terms of possible impact of auto-correlation, it can not be ascribed changes in the daily-reported case number of three kinds of infectious diseases and their trends over time to heat wave.
作者
张行易
杨嘉辉
胡国清
陈田木
谢知
刘如春
ZHANG Xing-yi , YANG Jia-hui, HU Guo-qing, CHEN Tian-mu, XIE Zhi, LIU Ru-chun(Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410078, Chin)
出处
《实用预防医学》
CAS
2018年第4期445-447,495,共4页
Practical Preventive Medicine
