摘要
本文基于产品空间理论比较金砖五国2000—2015年的产业升级路径,首先采用显示性比较优势和密度指标的实证研究表明,金砖五国产业升级均是偏离比较优势的发展路径,中国的偏离幅度最大;其次比较经济复杂度、增长绩效、能力距离等指标,得出结论中国和印度产品空间演进能力较强,巴西和南非产品空间演进能力相当,而俄罗斯产品空间演进能力几近停滞。综合来看,中国和印度的产业升级竞争力较强,巴西、南非和俄罗斯的升级竞争力较弱。就中国而言,其产品多样性和经济增长稳定性具有明显优势,应继续实施偏离比较优势的跨越式发展路径,适度提升产品多样化水平、降低优势产品的普遍性、发展高端装备制造业等,不断提升经济复杂度,以期优化产业升级路径。
On the basis of the theory of product space, this paper compares the industrial upgrading path in BRICS from 2000 to 2015. First of all, empirical studies using the comparative advantages and the density indicators show that the industrial upgrading in BRICS has deviated from the path of comparative advantage, especially in China. Secondly, on the basis of comparison on the economic complexities, growth performance, capability distance and other indicators, it concludes that China and India have strong capabilities to evolve their product space; Brazil and South Africa＇s capabilities to evolve their product space are similar, while Russia＇s is nearly stagnant. On the whole, China and India are stronger in competitiveness in industrial upgrading. China＇s product diversity and economic growth stability have obvious advantages. The leap-forward development path that deviates from its comparative advantages is beneficial to China.
出处
《中国科技论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期180-188,共9页
Forum on Science and Technology in China
基金
国家社科基金一般项目"马克思主义经济学的创新发展研究"(14BJL009)
陕西高校人文社会科学青年英才支持计划项目(HSSTP201426)
关键词
产品空间
产业升级
比较优势
经济复杂度
能力距离
Product space
Industrial upgrading
Comparative advantage
Economic complexity
Capability distance
