摘要
本文根据140个经济体1980-2013年的数据探究为何大量经济体的外汇储备偏离合意储备规模。研究发现各国在外汇储备管理实践中并未充分执行基于外部风险敞口加权的合意储备规则,具体表现为:实际外汇储备规模与流动性风险最高的债务风险敞口显著负相关,实行钉住汇率制度的国家并未持有更多的外汇储备。而且当前的合意储备规则并未充分考虑国家异质性因素,即经济金融发展水平的不同、文化的差异性以及汇率低估目标选择的差异均对实际外汇储备需求有非常显著的影响,上述因素并未在当前的合意储备规则中体现。因此,在重构当前的国际储备体系时,合意储备规则的制定应当关注国家异质性因素以及规则是否有效执行的问题。
This paper uses the panel data of 140 economies over the period between 1980 and 2013 to explore the underlying reasons for large deviations of actual foreign reserve from the optimal level for many economies. We have two main findings. First, the rule of optimal foreign reserve based on weighted exter- nal risk exposure has not been fully implemented in practices, in that the actual magnitude of foreign re- serve is negatively related to debt risk exposure with highest liquidity risk. In addition, those economies with pegged exchange rate regime do not hold as much foreign reserves as expected. Second, the above rule is insufficient of considering national heterogeneities such as economic and financial development, culture differences and the selection of exchange rate undervaluation target, all of which could exert significant in- fluences on the actual demand of foreign reserve but have been ignored in the current rule. Therefore, in rebuilding the international reserve system against the backdrop of severe supply-demand imbalance of safe assets, the rule-making of optimal foreign reserve should keep an eye on national heterogeneity factors as well as whether the rule could be effectively implemented.
出处
《世界经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期101-126,共26页
The Journal of World Economy
基金
教育部人文社科规划基金项目(16YJA790047)
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71603291
71703173)的资助
关键词
外汇储备
预防性动因
风险敞口
国家异质性
foreign reserve, precautionary motive, risk exposure, national heterogeneity
