摘要
推进绿色循环农业经济发展是实现农业经济、农村升级转型及可持续发展的重要举措。因此研究绿色循环农业经济发展具有重要意义。首先建立基于多元线性回归的粮食产量模型,用以研究粮食产量与农药化肥使用量之间的内在关系,探究在减少农药对环境污染的前提下,如何促进粮食产量的提高。然后利用主成分法研究影响农田灌溉水利用效率的主要影响因素,并在主成分回归、灰色预测、最小二乘法的基础上建立组合预测模型,预测2020年农田灌溉水利用效率值。最后根据研究结果,针对如何发展绿色农业循环经济提出了相关的建议。
To promote green circular agriculture economy development is the important measure to realize the transformation and upgrading of the agricultural economy, rural and sustainable development. So the green circular agriculture economic development is of great significance. First food production model is established based on multivariate linear regression to study the internal relationship between crop yields and pesticides fertilizer usage, and explore how to promote the food production on the premise of reducing pesticide pollution to the environment.Then study of main factors affecting farmland irrigation water use efficiency by using the principal components method is carried on, and the principal component regression, grey prediction, on the basis of the least squares method combined forecasting model is established, forecasting value of farmland irrigation water use efficiency in 2020. Finally some suggestions based on the results of the research aimed at how to develop green agriculture circular economy are put forward.
出处
《文山学院学报》
2017年第6期72-77,共6页
Journal of Wenshan University
基金
大学生科研创新基金项目"现代农业循环经济发展研究--以安徽省为例"(XSKY1777)
