摘要
为了解气候变暖对我国小麦条锈病菌越夏的影响,本研究基于2002—2012年间691个气象站点7、8月份连续最热10 d均温低于越夏临界温度22℃或23℃的年概率,比较了Arc GIS中反距离权重法、局部多项式插值法、径向基函数法和普通克里格法4种插值方法对我国小麦条锈病菌越夏区划的影响,采用指数模型和球状模型下普通克里格插值法进行了条锈病菌越夏区划;以2002—2012年间7、8月份连续最热10 d的平均温度均值作为区划指标,利用Arc GIS的指数模型和球状模型下普通克里格法进行了高程插值。结果表明,2002—2012年每年的7、8月份连续最热10 d均温低于越夏临界温度的年概率在20%以上的地区可以认为是我国小麦条锈病菌的越夏区,年概率在5%~20%的区域可以视为越夏过渡区,年概率在5%以下的地区可以视为不太适合小麦条锈病菌越夏的区域。表明小麦条锈病菌越夏区仍主要集中于我国西北、川西北地区,但越夏范围有一定缩减。
To explore the effects of climate changes on oversummering of Puccinia striiformis f. sp.tritici（Pst）, the climate-based classification for oversummering regions of Pst in China was conducted on the Arc GIS platform based on the probability that the average temperature in the warmest continuous ten days in July and August from 2002 to 2012 was less than the critical temperature（22℃ or 23℃） in691 meteorological stations. The exponential model and the spherical model of ordinary Kriging were selected from four different interpolation methods including inverse distance weighting, local polynomial interpolation, radial basis functions and ordinary Kriging, which were used for climatic regionalization. The climatic regionalization was also conducted using ordinary Kriging（both exponential model and spherical model） with the elevation model on the Arc GIS platform. Basen on the probabilities, the areas with a probability higher than 20% were regarded as suitable zones for Pst oversummering in China; the areas with a probability between 5% and 20% were regarded as transitional zones for Pst oversummering, and the areas with a probability lower than 5% were regrarded as not being quite suitable for Pst oversummering. Oversummering areas of wheat stripe rust were mainly concentrated in northwestern China and northwestern Sichuan. However, the range of oversummering areas decreased to some degree.
出处
《植物保护学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第1期124-137,共14页
Journal of Plant Protection
基金
国家自然科学基金(31101393)
国家科技支撑计划(2012BAD19BA04)
关键词
小麦条锈病
气候变化
越夏
气候区划
地理信息系统
wheat stripe rust
climate change
oversummering
climatic regionalization
GIS
