摘要
合理的税制改革是经济持续发展的重要驱动,"营改增"能否为新常态下的中国经济注入新的动力,破解供需失衡、效率降低的结构性难题,亟待深入研究。在此背景下,利用"营改增"改革的政策冲击,基于上下游行业关联的视角,运用三重差分方法讨论了"营改增"对企业出口行为和生产率的影响。研究发现,在行业关联较为充分的企业内,"营改增"改革降低了企业的出口成本,促进了企业出口收入增加和出口利润的深化,但是对企业的出口宽化作用影响较小。研究还发现,"营改增"对企业生产率的提升具有明显的异质性,其中,研发、信息技术行业的生产率效应较为显著,而交通运输、国有、政府补贴、融资约束的企业表现较弱。结论对推动增值税立法具有一定的指导意义。
Reasonable tax reform is an important driving force for sustained economic development. It is urgent to explore whether the ＂Business Tax Replaced with VAT Reform＂（VAT reform） can inject fresh impetus into Chinese economy under the＂new normal＂,to solve the structural problem of the imbalance between supply and demand and the efficiency reduction. In this context,this paper makes use of the policy impact of China＇s VAT reform as an exogenous shock and employs the triple difference method to discuss the impact of VAT reform on firms＇ export performance and productivity,based on the framework of upstream and downstream industrial linkage. The results show that in the firms with more industrial linkage,the VAT reform reduces the export cost of firms,promotes the deepening of export earnings and export profits of firms,but has little effect on the export liberalization of firms. Further research shows that the positive effect of VAT reform on improvement of firm productivity has obvious heterogeneity. The improvement effect is more significant in the RD and IT industries,but is weaker in the transportation industry,state-owned enterprises,and firms with government subsidies and financing constraints.The conclusion of this article has a certain guiding significance for promoting the VAT reform.
出处
《产业经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第1期52-64,89,共14页
Industrial Economics Research
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71773047)
合肥工业大学人才引进项目
关键词
“营改增”
出口
生产率
行业关联指数
三重差分方法
VAT reform
export
productivity
industrial linkage index
triple difference method
