摘要
为提高发射场地面系统概率安全评估(PSA)工作的准确性,克服设备小子样和数据缺失带来的困难,考虑到设备故障随使用时间的不均匀分布问题,开发一个基于数据特点的设备全寿命使用阶段划分方法。首先,分析设备在全寿命运行过程中的数据累计变化特点,并根据数据多源性划分设备的3个不同使用阶段;其次,分别利用蒙特卡罗模拟法和服从寿命分布的函数,确定设备在3个使用阶段的2个分段时间点处的可靠度计算方法;最后,以发射场常规加注泵为例验证该分段方法有效性。研究结果表明:加注泵运行前中期分段点为31 h,对应可靠度为0.996 5;中后期分段点为132 h,对应可靠度为0.979 8。
In order to improve the accuracy of PSA work of the launch site ground system and overcome the difficulties caused by both the small sample and data loss,a kind of equipment full life segmentation method based on data characteristics was worked out,considering the uneven distribution of equipment failure rules with usage time. For the sake of working out the method,the changes of data accumulation during the period of usage time were analyzed and the three stages of the equipment were determined based on multi-source data. Monte Carlo simulation and life distribution function were used to calculate the reliability of the segmented time point. A certain conventional filling pump was taken as an example to verify the effectiveness of the piecewise method. The results show that the premetaphase point is 31 h,the corresponding reliability is 0. 996 5,the middle and late point is 132 h,the corresponding reliability is 0. 979 8.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第12期37-42,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
关键词
概率安全评估(PSA)
可靠度
全寿命分段
状态转移
蒙特卡罗模拟
对数正态分布
probabilistic safety assessment（PSA）
reliability
segmentation of lifetime
state transition
Monte Carlo simulation
lognormal distribution
