摘要
【目的】针对已有研究中存在的测量误差和分解有偏问题,采用新的估计方法重新测算中国2004—2015年的林业技术效率及全要素生产率(TFP)增长率,以期正确认识和评价当前中国林业的发展模式和经济增长质量。【方法】首先利用Battese等(1995)提出的"一步法"随机前沿模型(SFA)对各省林业技术效率进行估算,并分析其主要影响因素;然后结合Malmquist生产率指数,测算各省及东北、东部、中部和西部4大区域的林业TFP增长率,分析其时序增长与空间分布特征;最后将TFP增长分解为前沿技术变化和技术效率变化2部分,确认不同省份林业TFP增长的来源。【结果】1)中国林业生产中存在比较普遍的技术无效现象,平均技术效率只有0.546,还有很大提升潜力;2)年降水量、森林病虫鼠害防治面积和林业专业技术人员数对林业技术效率提升具有显著正向作用,而森林病虫鼠害发生面积正好相反,森林火灾受害面积虽然影响也为负,但未通过显著性检验;3)样本期内,中国林业TFP年均增长16.48%,其中技术变化贡献了16.92个百分点,是TFP增长的主要动力,技术效率变化贡献了-0.37个百分点,一定程度上阻碍了林业TFP获得更快增长;4)中国林业TFP增长及其成分的空间差异明显,虽然几乎全部样本省份都实现了TFP正增长,但其中过半省份表现为技术进步与技术效率恶化并存的"单驱动"型增长,不具有可持续性。【结论】2004—2015年,主要是技术进步支撑中国林业TFP增长,林业技术效率水平低下且长期处于恶化状态对TFP产生负面影响;从各省份、各区域林业TFP增长特征的比较来看,虽然除北京外几乎所有样本省份都实现了TFP正增长,但省份间、区域间TFP增长速度差异很大,TFP增长的源泉也各不相同。因此,推动中国林业TFP持续增长,除了继续加大林业科技投入、促进林业技术进步外,加强对现有技术的吸收利
【Objective】 Aiming at the measurement error and biased decomposition in existing researches,this paper adopts a new estimation method,recalculates 2004—2015 Chinese forestry technical efficiency and total factor productivity（TFP） growth,with a view to understand and evaluate correctly the development model of Chinese forestry industry and the quality of economic growth.【Method】 Based on the ＂one-step＂stochastic frontier approach（SFA） and provincial panel dataset（2004—2015）,this paper analyses the regional disparity of technical efficiency in China forestry industry and its influence factors.On this basis,the TFP growth and their components in each province and region are measured by the SFA-Malmquist index method.Finally,by dividing the change of TFP into changes in technology and in technical efficiency,the sources of TFP growth in each province and region are analyzed.【Result】 The result show that： 1） Therewere widespread inefficiency in China forestry production,and the average technical efficiency is only 0.546 during2004—2015,still has much room for improvement.2） In all factors,annual precipitation,the controlled areas of forest pest and the amount of forestry professional technical personnel have a significant positive effect on the forestry technical efficiency,while the occurred areas of forest pest has the opposite effect,and the forest fire disaster area influence is also negative,but not significant.3） Over the period of 2004—2015,China＇s forestry annual growth rate of TFP is 16.48%,but this growth is mainly driven by the frontier technology progress,and the technical efficiency improvements had played a side effect.4） Almost all provinces had got a positive growth in forestry TFP growth,but there was over half of provinces＇ TFP growth showed deviates from technology progress and technical efficiency improvements.【Conclusion】 In the past decades,the growth of TFP in China forestry industry was achieved predominantly by technological progress rather
作者
史常亮
揭昌亮
石峰
温亚利
Shi Changliang;Jie Changliang;Shi Feng;Wen Yali(School of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University Beijing 100083;Urban Economic Institute,Jiangxi Academy of Soclal Sciences Nanchang 330077;School of Economics and Management, Beijiag Forestry University Beijing 100083)
出处
《林业科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第12期126-135,共10页
Scientia Silvae Sinicae
基金
国家林业局"十三五"规划调研项目(628730)
2015年国家林业局重大问题调研项目(660027)
