摘要
【目的】模拟预测森林经营及气候变化下长白落叶松人工林林分生长及生物量变化,以期为长白落叶松人工林经营管理提供科学依据。【方法】以吉林省和龙、舒兰、通化、汪清、长春林区内15块长白落叶松人工林固定样地为对象,基于气候、土壤、林分生长等观测数据,运用3-PG模型模拟了研究区内长白落叶松的生物量及其分配,并模拟了CO_2浓度升高对生物量的影响。【结果】3-PG模型能够较好地模拟林分蓄积和干生物量的生长变化,除叶生物量外(R^2=0.39),各指标的预测值与实际值的相关性较高(R^2在0.62~0.86之间),平均相对误差和相对均方根误差均小于15%。参数敏感性分析表明:土壤肥力等级和生物量分配参数是该模型的关键参数。研究还发现长白落叶松人工林的生物量随CO_2浓度升高而增加。【结论】3-PG模型可以用于长白落叶松人工林的生长模拟。
【Objective】We aimed to simulate the stand growth and biomass changes of Larix olgensis plantations with forest management under climate change.【Method】Fifteen permanent sample plots of L.olgensis plantations located at Helong,Shulan,Tonghua,Wangqing and Changchun,Jilin Province,were selected to simulate stand biomass and its allocation by integrating 3-PG model with climate,soil and stand growth observations.Moreover,the effect of elevated CO2 concentration on biomass allocation was simulated.【Result】With the exception of leaf biomass（R^2= 0.39）,the 3-PG model could well simulate the trend of volume and stem biomass,with R^2 between predicted and observed values ranging from 0.62 to 0.86.In addition,both the mean relative errors and the relative root mean square errors were less than15%.Parameter sensitivity analysis showed that the soil fertility rating and biomass allocation are the key parameters of the model.In addition,we found that the biomass allocation increased with increasing CO2 concentrations.【Conclusion】Therefore,the 3-PG model can be used to simulate the growth of L.olgensis plantations.
出处
《南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第1期141-148,共8页
Journal of Nanjing Forestry University：Natural Sciences Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(31270679)
