摘要
为降低和预防农业气象灾害的影响,根据黑龙江省1980-2015年农业洪涝和干旱数据建立G(1,1)累加预测模型,并对黑龙江省2015年之后出现的严重级别以上洪涝灾害的年份进行预测。结果表明:在1980-2015年,黑龙江省洪涝灾害发生级别高于严重等级的年份符合G(1,1)累加模型x^(^(1))(k+1)=3.786e^(0.1752k),该模型精度达到了四级,可以利用此模型进行预测。预测得到2015年后严重洪涝灾害出现的年份为2022年;黑龙江省干旱灾害发生级别高于严重等级的年份符合G(1,1)累加模型x^(^(0))(k+1)=15.849e^(0.0799k),该模型精度达到了二级,利用此模型预测得到严重干旱灾害出现的年份为2020年。
In order to reduce and prevent the impact of agrometeorological disasters.Based on agricultural flood and drought data during the 1980-2015years in Heilongjiang province,a cumulative prediction model of G(1,1)was established,and the year of flood disaster above Heilongjiang level after 2015was forecasted.The results showed that in the 1980-2015years,the flood disaster incidence level in Heilongjiang province was higher than that in the severe grade year,which accorded with the G(1,1)accumulation model x^((1))(k+1)=3.786e^(0.1752k).The accuracy of the model reached four level,which could be predicted by this model.The prediction of major flood disasters after 2015is the year of 2022;Heilongjiang province drought damage level was higher than the severity of the year with G(1,1)model x^((0))(k+1)=15.849e^(0.0799k),the accuracy of the model reached two,using this model to predict the serious drought disasters occurred in 2020years.
出处
《黑龙江农业科学》
2017年第12期27-31,共5页
Heilongjiang Agricultural Sciences
基金
中国清洁发展机制基金资助项目(2014101)
关键词
农业气象灾害
灰色预测模型
受灾率
黑龙江省
agrometeorological disasters
graypredictionmodel
disaster rate
Heilongjiang province
