摘要
Universal two-child policy has been implemented since the end of 2015 in China.This policy is anticipated to bring a significant increase in the total population,with profound influences on the resources and environment in the future.This paper analyzes the changing dynamics of urban and rural population,and forecasts urban and rural population from 2016 to 2030 at national and provincial scale using a double log linear regression model.Drawing upon the results of these two predictions,the impact of the population policy change on Chinese resources consumption and environmental pollution are predicted quantitatively.Given the future total population maintains current levels on resources consumption and environmental emission,the additional demand of resources and environment demand for the new population is forecasted and compared against the capacity on supply side.The findings are as follows:after implementing the universal two-child policy,China's grain,energy consumption,domestic water demand,and pollutant emissions are projected to increase at different rates across provinces.To meet the needs arising from future population growth,food and energy self-sufficiency rate will be significantly reduced in the future,while relying more on imports.Stability of the water supply needs to be improved,especially in Beijing,Henan,Jiangsu,Qinghai,and Sichuan where the gap in future domestic water demand is comparatively larger.Environmental protection and associated governing capability are in urgent need of upgrade not least due to the increasing pressure of pollution.
Universal two-child policy has been implemented since the end of 2015 in China.This policy is anticipated to bring a significant increase in the total population,with profound influences on the resources and environment in the future.This paper analyzes the changing dynamics of urban and rural population,and forecasts urban and rural population from 2016 to 2030 at national and provincial scale using a double log linear regression model.Drawing upon the results of these two predictions,the impact of the population policy change on Chinese resources consumption and environmental pollution are predicted quantitatively.Given the future total population maintains current levels on resources consumption and environmental emission,the additional demand of resources and environment demand for the new population is forecasted and compared against the capacity on supply side.The findings are as follows：after implementing the universal two-child policy,China＇s grain,energy consumption,domestic water demand,and pollutant emissions are projected to increase at different rates across provinces.To meet the needs arising from future population growth,food and energy self-sufficiency rate will be significantly reduced in the future,while relying more on imports.Stability of the water supply needs to be improved,especially in Beijing,Henan,Jiangsu,Qinghai,and Sichuan where the gap in future domestic water demand is comparatively larger.Environmental protection and associated governing capability are in urgent need of upgrade not least due to the increasing pressure of pollution.
