摘要
沙漠化逆转过程脆弱性是指沙漠化逆转现象对社会-生态系统内外各种扰动的敏感性及因缺乏应对不利扰动的能力而使逆转趋势减弱或反向发展的倾向和可能性。从社会-生态系统角度综合分析沙漠化逆转过程的脆弱性及其关键要素的贡献,对于系统治理和综合调控沙漠化问题、保障沙漠化逆转可持续具有重大意义。以典型沙漠化逆转区宁夏盐池县为例,基于DPSIR框架构建脆弱性评价模型并通过拟合曲线辨识关键因素的贡献。结果表明:(1)2003—2005年盐池县沙漠化逆转过程的脆弱性缓慢上升,2006年脆弱性指数快速上升并于2007年达到最大值0.733,2008—2011年逐年下降至0.442,2012—2014年小幅度先升后降。(2)社会因素尤其是人类活动是盐池县沙漠化逆转过程脆弱性形成的重要贡献因素,其中人口城镇化、生态治理指数、机电井眼数、当年造林面积、师生比及农村家庭人均纯收入对逆转过程脆弱性的贡献较大,拟合曲线R^2均大于0.5。(3)人口城镇化、生态治理指数、当年造林面积、单位GDP用水量是减缓逆转过程脆弱性的显著因素,而非农生计人口比重提高会加剧脆弱性。(4)随县域经济发展、农村家庭人均纯收入及机电井眼数的增加盐池县沙漠化逆转过程的脆弱性先升后降,而随师生比、单位国土面积固定资产投资的增加脆弱性则先降后升。
The desertification reversion process vulnerability refers to the sensitivity of desertification rever- sion phenomenon on social-ecosystems＇ various disturbances, and the tendencies and possibilities of rever- sion trend decline or reverse development due to lack of the capacity to respond to adverse disturbances. It has great significance for system governance and comprehensive regulation of desertification, and reversion trend sustainability from the perspective of social-ecological systems to comprehensively analyze the contri- bution mechanism of desertification reversion process vulnerability. Yanchi County, a typical area of deserti- fication reversion in agro-pastoral ecotone, is taken as the study region in our study. Based on the DPSIR model, we constructed the vulnerability evaluation model and applied the fitting curve to explore the vulner- ability contribution mechanism. The results showed that： （1） The curve of desertification reversion process vulnerability slowly rose during 2003--2005. In 2006 this index rapidly rose and reached the maximum value （0. 733） in 2007 then declined to 0. 442 from 2008 to 2011. Mter 2012, this index showed a slight rise and then fell. （2） Social factors, especially the human activity is the important influence factors of the desertifi- cation reversion vulnerability. The population urbanization, ecological management index, the number of e- lectromechanical well, planting trees and grass area each year, teacher/student ratio and net income per ca- pita of rural households have a great contribution to vulnerability of desertification reversion process. Their curve fitting R2 are all higher than 0. 5. （3） Population urbanization, ecological management index, year af- forestation area and water consumption per ten thousands Yuan GDP were the significant factors to slow down the vulnerability, while increase of the population proportion of non-agricultural livelihoods will in- crease the vulnerability. （4） With the electromechanical wells, rural ho
出处
《中国沙漠》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第1期39-47,共9页
Journal of Desert Research
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0500909)
国家自然科学基金项目(41471436)
