摘要
本文从经济周期的角度解释了黄金价格变动的影响因素。在世界经济复苏和繁荣阶段,黄金表现低迷;在衰退和萧条阶段黄金行情强势,黄金价格周期与经济发展周期相反。中周期下黄金体现商品属性,与大宗商品走势吻合,作为大宗商品,物价水平和世界流动性对其有重要影响。短周期黄金价格受到突发因素影响较大,投资者情绪和预期为波动主要原因。此外,通过实证检验,提出了基于周期视角完整的黄金价格预测体系。
This paper explains the factors of gold price fluctuation from the perspective of periodicity. In recovery and prosperity stage of the world, gold performance is sluggish; In the recession and depression stage, the independent bull market tends to emerge, and the gold price cycle is opposite to the economic development cycle. In the middle period, gold reflects commodity attributes, and coincides with the trend of commodities. As a commodity, the price level and world liquidity have an important impact on it. In short cycle gold price is greatly influenced by unexpected factors, and investor sentiment and expectation are the main causes of fluctuation. In addition, A complete gold price forecasting system based on cycle perspective is proposed.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第12期98-101,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"新形势下防范金融风险研究"(项目编号:08BJY155)
国家社会科学基金项目"全面提高开放型经济水平研究"(项目编号:13AZD006)
