摘要
过去千年半球尺度高质量气候环境数据是揭示全球增暖机理、预测预估未来情景及影响的重要基础;利用代用指标,研制北半球千年尺度气候高分辨率数据集,评估其可靠性一直是全球变化研究关注的核心内容之一。本文简述了开展北半球千年尺度气候高分辨率数据集研制及可靠性研究的必要性、紧迫性和发展动向;分析了其研究现状和存在问题;阐述了下一步的研究目标、思路和需解决的关键科学与技术问题,以及主要研究内容,包括:代用指标物理意义诊断与数据挖掘技术研发、气候与海平面、冰雪、土地利用与动植物分布变化数据集研制等4个方面;并对预期产出及意义进行了简要展望。
High quality millennial climate changes data over Northern Hemisphere (NH) is critical for studies of the mechanism in global warming, assessment of climate change impacts and projection of climate change in future. The studies on high-resolution proxy-reconstructed data and its reliability for millennial climate changes over NH, which is now evolved in the National Key R&D Program of China on Global Change, is one of core is- sues and hot spots for international society of global change research. This paper presented the motivation of the project in brief, especially on the necessity and mission for China. Moreover, by analyzeing the progress,potential issues and the main knowledge gaps for this re- search field, the goals and research foci of the project were described. To achieve the goals, the key research activities of the project, including the diagnose of the proxy implications and approaches for data minning, the reconstruction methodology for high-resolution millennial climate and enviromental datasets (climate and sea level, snow and ice, land use and land cover, and animal distribution) from proxies, were planned respectively. The outcomes of the project were also anticipated.
出处
《中国基础科学》
2017年第6期1-8,29,共9页
China Basic Science
基金
国家重大科学研究计划项目(2017YFA0603300)
关键词
北半球
千年
气候变化
高分辨率数据
可靠性
Northern Hemisphere
millennium
climatechanges
high-resolution data
reliability