摘要
2017年以来,防止金融系统性风险等关键词不断刷屏,"明斯基时刻"迅速成为市场关注的热点。房地产泡沫、脱实向虚、债务高企等风险点不断积聚,外部风险的冲击成为引发国内"明斯基时刻"危机的不稳定因素。与此同时,无论是美国"加息"、"缩表",还是特朗普政府对内"减税"、对外贸易保护主义,以及美国高筑的公共债务、股市和房地产泡沫,都极有可能产生"波及效应",引发中国国内经济系统性风险的爆发。特别是随着"一带一路"的推进,资本项目账户的不断开放将成为中国的必然选择,国外风险的冲击对国内楼市、资本市场的负面作用会更加明显。通过监管创新确保资本账户有保障的放开,将成为遏制国外风险传递的"摄像头"。而自贸区账户的全面推广,将成为最重要的试验田和突破口。它能够在防范金融风险的同时,最大限度地降低实体经济的融资成本、预防资本外逃。立足于大数据和技术支撑,实现自贸区账户监管创新的先行先试,将成为切实可行的操作方案。
Since 2017, the prevention of financial systemic risk constantly refresh, "Minsky moment" is becoming the focus of the market. Those unstable factors, such as the real estate bubble, financial disengagement from the real economy, the accumulating high risk of debt, external risk impact will give rise to "Minsky moment". Whether it is "lowering the interest rate", or the "tax cuts" by the Trump administration, foreign trade protectionism and the high level of public debt, the stock market and real estate bubble, are likely to produce "ripple effect", which will induce China domestic economic systemic risk. Especially with the "The Belt and Road" initiative, furtheropening capital account will become the inevitable choice for China, the negative impact of foreign risk will be more obvious. Through regulatory innovation, the improvement of surveillance in the capital account will function like a "camera" to curb foreign risk transmission. The comprehensive promotion of FTA(accounts) will become the most important test field and breakthrough. It can prevent financial risks while minimizing the cost of real economy and preventing capital flight. Based on the large data and technical support, the first test of the innovation of the account supervision in the free trade area will be a feasible path.
出处
《探索与争鸣》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第1期84-90,共7页
Exploration and Free Views
基金
2016年度国家社科基金重大项目"人民币加入SDR
一篮子货币定值与中国宏观经济的均衡研究"(16ZDA031)
