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司法认知偏差与量化裁判中的锚定效应 被引量:33

Anchoring Effect in Judicial Cognitive Bias and Quantitative Judgments
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摘要 锚定效应是司法认知偏差的一种重要表现形式,受此影响法官会在量化决策时给予初始信息过多的重视,将某些随机的锚位值作为估测的起始值,导致裁判结果很不稳定,严重损害司法形象。利用广东省2015年四种代表性损害赔偿案件的统计数据,对司法情境因素、精神损害赔偿和裁判锚定效应的关系进行了实证检验。研究发现,锚定效应的确是中国民事司法实践中一种非常普遍的现象,当前裁判锚定效应的发生呈现出内外有别的总体格局,影响显著的外生锚点和作用微弱的内生锚点形成强烈反差,反映出当代中国法官的尴尬处境。法官群体对外界压力和风险的系统性回应是诱发裁判锚定效应的关键因素。未来的司法体制建设应将有限的资源投入到对外生锚点的控制上,并建立有效的法官决策信息供给机制。 Anchoring effect is one of important forms of judicial cognitive bias, affected by which judges pay too much attention to initial information when they make quantitative decisions, and take some random anchor numbers as the starting values, leading to instable judgment results and harming judicial image seriously. Using statistical data of four typical damages cases of Guangdong Province in 2015, the article tests the relationship of situation factors, pain-and-suffering damages and judicial anchoring effect. This stu judicial dy finds that anchoring effect is indeed a very common phenomenon in China judicial practice, and the current generative mechanism of judicial anchoring effect demonstrates an internal and external distinction pattern, external anchors with significant impact and internal anchors without remarkable influence present a sharp contrast, which reflects the embarrassing situation of Chinese judges. Judge group's systematic response to outside pressure and risk is the key factor inducing judicial anchoring effect. In the following judicial system construction, limited resources should be put into controlling external anchors, and establish effective information supply mechanism of judge's decision making.
作者 杨彪
机构地区 中山大学法学院
出处 《中国法学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2017年第6期240-261,共22页 China Legal Science
基金 中国法学会部级法学研究课题"损害赔偿诉讼中的司法认知与策略行为研究"(项目批准号:CLS[2016]D03)的阶段性研究成果
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