摘要
政府和私营方是PPP项目的直接参与方,也是风险分配的直接对象。针对PPP交通基础设施项目运营期主要风险如何进行分配问题,首先对主要风险因素进行重要性评估,即在对运营期风险进行层级分类的基础上,运用层次分析法构建风险评价模型,得出中观层级的风险对运营期效益影响最大,而中观层级中的运营期成本风险在所有风险因素影响程度中占比最高的结论。进而假设在成本风险发生的情况下,通过建立政府方和私营方之间的合作博弈模型,在双方共赢的基础上求出纳什均衡解,得出政府和私营方各自的最优风险分配比例。最后针对PPP合同的特殊性以及公私双方对于风险分配的决策依据提出相应的建议,从而在成本风险发生时为公私双方更好的合作提供理论基础。
The government and the private party are the direct participants and direct object of risk allocation of the PPP projects. Against how to distribute the main risk during the operation period of the PPP traffic infrastructure projects, evaluate the importance of the main risk at first, which is based on the hierarchical classification of risk during the operation period, this article established an risk evaluation model by using analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. Then it draws conclusions that the medium level of risk has the greatest influence on efficiency of operations, and the operation period of cost risk in the medium level has the highest influence degree in all risk factors. And then assume that in the case of cost risk occurs, the writer established an cooperative game model between the government and the private party, it is concluded that the government and the private party of their respective optimal risk allocation proportion on the basis of the two sides a win-win and Nash equilibrium. Finally, based on the particularity of the PPP contract and the decision basis of public and private for risk sharing between the two sides, the writer put forward his opinion. Thus it provided scientific guarantee for better cooperation between public and private when the cost risk occurs.
出处
《施工技术》
CAS
北大核心
2017年第24期103-108,共6页
Construction Technology
关键词
PPP
基础设施
风险分配机制
层次分析法
博弈
PPP
infrastructure
risk allocation mechanism
analytic hierarchy process
gambling
