摘要
尽管前瞻指引货币政策效果在学界仍存争议,但其已成为部分国家央行政策工具箱中一项重要工具。本文对前瞻指引货币政策的基本内涵及政策有效性进行分析,发现我国央行具有隐性前瞻指引特征,随后分别利用几种前瞻指引货币政策有效性度量指标对我国央行前瞻指引行为进行测度。实证结果表明,前瞻指引货币政策的实施产生了显著效果。从实践角度来看,作为提高央行透明度的一种预期管理方式,我国央行所实施的前瞻指引货币政策显示出提高货币政策效力、减少市场波动等诸多政策效应。在此情况下,央行通过加强主动沟通和提高透明度等方法提高对预期的管理效果,提高政策效力;加大指引力度和创新指引方式,可以向市场传达更清晰的货币政策信号,以加强前瞻性货币政策效果。
Forward guidance monetary policy has become an important tool in some central banks, although there are still some debates about its effects. This paper analyzes the content and effectiveness of forward guidance monetary policy in China and finds that the People＇s Bank of China has implicit forward guidance policy. Further empirical investigations reveal that this implicit forward guidance policy has significant effects on relevant economic variables. From the practical point of view, forward guidance policy in China manifests effects of increasing monetary policy effectiveness and decreasing market volatility. Therefore, the central bank of China should enhance proactive communications with the market and improve policy transparency to achieve effective expectation management. The central bank can deliver clearer policy signals to the market through strengthening forward guidance and policy innovations to achieve forward-looking policy effectiveness.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第12期3-16,共14页
Studies of International Finance
基金
中国金融四十人-青年论坛课题的阶段性研究成果
关键词
货币政策
前瞻指引政策
预期管理
央行可信度
Monetary Policy
Forward Guidance
Expectation Management
Central Bank Credibility
