摘要
以中国现有辐射观测资料为基础,综合利用近30年(1985-2014年)的风速、气温、湿度和露点温度等资料,通过综合气象条件相似分析技术,构建了太阳能资源评估典型年挑选方法——Sandia法。以我国9个代表观测站为例,重点对比分析了Sandia法、正态拟合法和频率最大法在典型年挑选方面的适用特点。结果发现:(1)Sandia法和正态拟合法挑选的典型年水平面年总辐射曝辐量接近,而频率最大法的挑选结果则偏离较大;(2)Sandia法和正态拟合法挑选的典型月辐射曝辐量之间的差值存在较明显的波动,且这种波动与天气复杂程度有关;(3)Sandia法对典型大气环境具有较好的代表性,但在应用中需要大量气象观测数据的支撑;(4)正态拟合法仅需要引入太阳辐射曝辐量的观测值,便于快速有效地应用,但所选典型年缺少气候代表性。此结果可为太阳能资源的科学评估提供依据,也在光伏电站及其他太阳能相关工程的最优设计和后评估中具有较好的应用价值。
Solar energy development and utilization plays an important role in haze governance and fulfilling the reduction commitments in advance. In order to make accurately optimal design and performance evaluation of the solar energy conversion systems,typical meteorological year（ TMY） data are needed. A TMY is a data set of daily values of solar radiation and meteorological elements for a 1-year period in this paper. It consists of months selected from individual years and concatenated to form a complete year. In this paper,the Finkelstein-Schafer statistical method,which was initially developed by Sandia national laboratories,is firstly applied by analyzing a30-year period（ 1985-2014） daily measured datasets which include global solar radiation,wind speed,relative humidity,air temperature,pressure and dewtemperature（ an intermediate variable） in order to generate typical meteorological year（ TMY） for nine representative meteorological stations in China. Therefore,the TMY data sets obtained here represent conditions judged to be typical over a long period of time（ 30 years）. Meanwhile,the annual global horizontal irradiations（ GHI） are also calculated by the normal distribution method and the max probability density method,which are the widely used in the engineering practice. Then,the emphasis is placed on the comparison between Sandia method,the normal distribution method and the max probability density method. It is found that：（ 1） annual global horizontal irradiations（ GHI） calculated from Sandia and normal distribution methods matched well with each other,and it showed a significant deviation in GHI calculated from the max probability density method;（ 2） despite of the similar annual GHI,significant variations exist in the monthly GHI difference between Sandia and normal distribution methods which was supposed to be connect with the complexity of the local weather conditions;（ 3） the Sandia method is of the good representative of the typical atmospheric conditions but requ
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第6期1713-1721,共9页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306048)
国家自然科学基金项目(41405038
41605086)
关键词
太阳能资源评估
典型年
对比研究
逐日气象资料
Solar energy resource assessment
typical meteorological year
comparative study
daily meteoro-logical data
