摘要
在对当前最优外汇储备估算方法进行简要述评之后,本文利用具有中国经济特征的开放条件DSGE模型,对中国最优外汇储备进行了估计。结果表明,2004年以来中国外汇储备已超过对外支付和审慎预防性需求的最优规模,并从2014年开始向最优数量收敛。对不同改革情形下的最优外汇储备估计、外部需求脉冲响应和社会福利的比较分析表明,无论何种汇率安排,由于居民外汇资产配置效应和利率平价机制,资本开放下的最优外汇储备数量大多低于资本管制情形,经济在出现外部需求冲击时能够更迅速地恢复均衡,社会福利也明显高于资本管制情形;而且,资本开放汇率浮动的完全改革情形下的社会福利最高。尽管最近两年我国外汇储备规模下降迅速,但当前3万亿美元左右的外汇储备仍高于最优外汇储备规模,这对未来中国全面加快推进金融领域对外开放改革具有非常重要的启示意义。
After a brief comment on the main methods of optimal reserve estimation, with a DSGE model embodied with China＇s characteristics, we estimate the optimal foreign exchange reserves of China. The results show that China＇s reserve has exceeded the optimal level for the external payments and precautious purposes since 2004 and is now converging to optimal scale recently. The comparison analysis on the optimal reserve levels, impulse function of external demand and social welfare between different reform circumstances show that, with capital liberalization, the optimal reserve level is almost always lower than the capital control conditions and economy can restore equilibrium more quickly, regardless the exchange arrangements, because of the foreign assets allocation effects and interest rate parity mechanism. The social welfare is highest under the full reform, i.e. capital liberalization and floating exchange rate and the current 3 trillion USD FX reserves still exceeds the optimal amount level, which is quite important for China＇s rapid progress of further comprehensive market-orientated financial reform.
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第12期19-34,共16页
Finance & Trade Economics
关键词
最优外汇储备
金融开放
金融改革
社会福利
Optimal Foreign Exchange Reserves, Financial Openness, Financial Reform, Social Welfare
