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基于Logistic、Gompertz模型的圆齿野鸦椿幼苗生长模拟与分析 被引量:9

Simulation of Growth Curve Based on Nonlinear Models of Logistic and Gompertz for Euscaphis konishii Seedling
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摘要 研究圆齿野鸦椿幼苗年生长节律,为制订合理的苗期管理制度提供理论依据。通过对圆齿野鸦椿一年生苗的苗高、地径生长状况进行持续观测,并利用Logistic、Gompertz模型及其最优组合模型对幼苗苗高、地径年生长规律进行拟合与分析。结果表明:圆齿野鸦椿幼苗苗高与地径生长节律符合"S"型曲线生长的一般规律,Logistic、Gompertz模型和最优组合模型均能较好的模拟圆齿野鸦椿幼苗的年生长节律,但Logistic模型的拟合度(R2)较Gompertz模型拟合度更高,其对苗高、地径的拟合度分别达到0.988、0.985,而最优组合模型能够进一步提高拟合精度。圆齿野鸦椿幼苗生长具有明显的阶段性,苗高出现2次生长高峰,地径出现3次生长高峰,苗高速生期持续64 d左右,速生期生长量占全年生长量的45.36%,地径速生期持续166 d左右,速生期生长量占全年生长量的55.28%,利用Logistic模型,并结合苗木实际生长情况,将圆齿野鸦椿一年生苗年生长划分为4个时期:出苗期、生长初期、速生期和生长后期,并提出各个时期的关键育苗措施。 The purpose of this study was to find the annual growth rhythm of Euscaphis konishii seedling and Provide theoretical basis for formulating reasonable seedling management system. The seedling height and stem diameter of Euscaphis konishii seedling were measured and simulated with nonlinear models of Logistic,Gompetz and combinatorial prediction,and the growth parameters were estimated. The result showed that the growth rhythm showed a "S"type curve; and these growth curves were appropriately fitted,but the Logistic model provided better fitting degree than Gompetz model; the fitting degrees of seedling height and stem diameter were 0.988,0.985,and the combinatorial prediction model could further improve the fitting accuracy.Seedling growth had obvious stages,the peak of seedling height growth appeared 2 times,and that of stem diameter growth appeared 3 times.The fast-growing stage of seedling height growth lasted about 64 d,accounted for about45.36% of the whole process of growth,and the fast-growing stage of stem diameter growth lasted about 166 d,accounted for about55.28% of the whole process of growth.According to Logistic model and combined with the actual growth of seedling,its growth process could be divided into four stages: germination stage,early growth stage,fast-growing stage and late growth stage.The measures for raising seedlings in various stages are proposed.
出处 《江西农业大学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2017年第6期1187-1195,共9页 Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis
基金 江西省林业厅科技创新专项(201402)~~
关键词 圆齿野鸦椿 生长节律 LOGISTIC模型 Gompertz模型 最优组合模型 Euscaphis konishii growth rhythm Logistic model Gompertz model combinatorial prediction model
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