摘要
以2002、2008、2014年龙海市土地利用/覆被类型数据和Logistic回归模型生成的各土地利用类型空间分布概率适宜性图集为基础,借助IDRISI软件平台,运用CA-Markov模块对龙海市土地利用变化进行模拟预测.结果表明:在粗放发展情景下,龙海市的耕地将被大量侵占,生态用地得不到有效保护,人地矛盾关系愈演愈烈;在城市规划与区域发展情景下,龙海市未来各用地类型结构的发展将趋于稳定,表明土地利用政策法规的约束实施在一定程度上有利于促进土地的可持续发展.
To predict land use changes in Longhai City,land use data in 2002,2008 and 2014 were firstly converted by IDRISI software,and spatial distribution probability of various land types was generated from Logistic-CA-Markov model.The results showed that in the scenario of extensive development area of arable land dropped mostly among all land use types,which was followed by forest land and garden.While area of construction land expanded sharply.When it comes to urban planning and regional development scenario,conversions of land use types with ecological functions to construction land was alleviated,so that arable land was protected to certain extent.Therefore,policy guidance and implementation of land use constraints are conducive to sustainable development of land.
出处
《福建农林大学学报（自然科学版）》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第6期685-691,共7页
Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University:Natural Science Edition
基金
福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2015J01624)
