摘要
干旱指标的适用性分析是准确监测旱情的重要前提。气象干旱指标相较于水文和农业干旱指标等能更准确的反应旱情且应用更加广泛。东北地区是我国重要的粮食主产区,同时也是干旱灾害的易发区。针对东北地区开展典型气象干旱指标的适用性具有重要的现实意义和应用价值。本研究利用东北三省78个气象站点1954—2013逐月降雨及温度资料,计算逐月的标准化降雨指数、标准化降雨蒸散指数、帕尔默干旱指数、降雨Z指数、降雨距平百分率和综合气象干旱指数。通过各指标的季节干旱识别的结果与历史干旱资料进行对比,分析其识别准确性,并作为指标适用性评价的依据,比较了各干旱指标在不同地区、不同季节的适用性。结果表明:标准化降雨指数对于东北三省各个季节都具有较好的适用性;降雨距平指数更适用于吉林和黑龙江,季节上尤其适用于春季和秋季。
The applicability analysis of drought index is an important prerequisite for the accurate monitoring of drought. The meteorological drought index is more accurate and more widely applied than the hydrological and agricultural drought indices. Northeast China is one of the most important grain producing zonesin China,and it is also the drought prone area. The applicability analysis carried out for the typical meteo-rological drought indices in Northeast China has important practical significance and application value. Thisstudy used monthly precipitation and temperature observation of 78 stations in Northeast China from 1954to 2013 to calculate the standardized precipitation index,standardized precipitation evaporation index,palmer drought index,Z index,precipitation anomaly percentage and integrated meteorological drought index.Then the recognition accuracy,which was defined as the criterion of applicability of drought indices,wascomputed by comparing the seasonal drought identification results with the historical drought records foreach index. The results of drought indices applicability in different areas and different seasons show thatthe standard precipitation index has good applicability for all seasons in Northeast China,and the precipitation anomaly is more suitable for Jilin and Heilongjiang,especially in spring and autumn.
出处
《中国水利水电科学研究院学报》
北大核心
2016年第6期425-430,共6页
Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51209220)
水利部公益性行业科研专项(201401036)
中国水利水电科学研究院科研专项(JZ0145B592016)
关键词
气象干旱
干旱指标
适用性
东北地区
Meteorological drought
Drought indices
Applicability
Northeast China
