摘要
作为中国中央银行的政策工具创新,定向降准首次将结构性调整功能赋予货币政策,然而目前仍缺乏对其政策效果的研究。本文以汽车金融类定向降准政策为例,阐述其对汽车消费和汽车企业投资的作用机制,并基于沪深两市A股制造业上市公司的数据,依据标准的双重差分分析步骤,定量评估汽车金融定向降准政策对汽车企业营业收入和投资的作用效果,验证该政策的"消费刺激效应"和"投资刺激效应"。研究表明:汽车金融定向降准政策并未显著提高汽车企业的营业收入,但是刺激了汽车企业的投资;高投资机会企业和大企业的投资对定向降准政策的反应更加强烈,企业所有制特征不是政策效果的主要影响因素。以上结论意味着:汽车金融定向降准政策刺激了汽车供给却未能对汽车需求产生显著影响,这可能强化了汽车行业的供求失衡,背离了中央银行刺激需求、化解产能过剩的政策初衷。在未来,中央银行应更注重对降准对象内部运行的考察,改进政策操作方式,并结合监管手段改变金融机构的激励相容和参与约束机制,使得定向降准政策能够真正做到精准调控。
As the policy-tool innovation of China＇s central bank, Targeted Required-Reserve-Ratio Cut （TRRRC） endues monetary policy with structural adjustment function for the first time, yet no formal research is made on its policy effect. Using automobile-finance TRRRC as illustration, this paper firstly describes the mechanism of policy effects on automobile consumption and investment, and then follows the standard procedure of Difference-in-Difference （DID） analysis to evaluate quantitatively the consumption and investment stimulatory effects of TRRRC by examining the operating income and investment performance of listed manufacturing-industry companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share markets. It＇s shown that TRRRC does not improve the operating income of automobile enterprises, but stimulates their investment; high-investment-opportunity and large enterprises reacts more strongly to the policy in their investment, and corporate ownership structure is not the main influential factor. These results implies that TRRRC for automobile finance stimulates automobile supply while has no obvious effect on automobile demand, which may deteriorate the imbalance between supply and demand in the automobile industry, and opposes to the central bank＇s original intention to stimulate demand and curb the over-capacity problem. In the future, the central bank should pay more attention to investigating the internal operation mechanism of the TRRRC objects, improve the ways of implementing polices, and combine supervision means to change the mechanism of incentive compatibility and participation constraint of financial institutions, so that the TRRRC can be truly precisely-regulating.
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第11期137-154,共18页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"经济发展新常态下的货币政策创新研究"(批准号15ZDA014)
关键词
定向降准
双重差分
汽车消费
投资
Targeted Required-Reserve-Ratio Cut （TRRC）
Difference-in-Difference （DID）
automobile consumption investment
