摘要
电力生产消费是二氧化碳的重要来源,但迄今大部分研究都忽略了碳排放约束对电力需求的影响。论文基于我国1995—2014年省级面板数据,利用一步系统广义矩估计模型,考察碳排放约束下中国的电力需求量。实证结果如下:碳排放与电力需求量之间具有显著的正向关系,同时不同地区碳排放对电力需求的影响在时间上具有一定滞后性。经济增长、资本存量等对电力消费有正向的作用,产业结构和对外贸易的影响则显示出一定的地域差异性,而城市化水平和电力价格对电力需求并无显著影响。因此,国家实行碳减排政策时应考虑地区间差异,并通过如引导"绿色低碳"投资方式、鼓励绿色低碳产业发展、转变能源结构等途径,以在实现碳减排目标的同时保障电力正常供应,为经济的稳定持续发展保驾护航。
Electricity production is the main source of carbon dioxide emission, while most existing studies relevant to the demand for electricity neglected the impact of carbon dioxide emission. This paper, based on China＇s provincial panel data from 1995 to 2014, applies the one-step SYS GMM approach to investigate the nexus between the demand of electric power and carbon dioxide emission, which aims to determine the relationship between carbon dioxide emission regulation and the demand for electric power. The results are as follows： carbon dioxide emission has a positive correlation with the demand for electric power, with certain lagging influence on the demand for electric power with regional differences. And meanwhile, economic growth and capital stock also have a positive correlation with the demand for electric power, and how industrial structure, and foreign trade bear on the demand of electric power is regionally different. But however, this paper doesn＇t tell some significant nexus between the demand for electric power and urbanization level, and between it and electricity price. We draw conclusions that the government should take into consideration the regional variations and try to take some measures, say, encouraging green and low-carbon investment and industry and leading the way to make breakthroughs in new energy power generation and energy structure adjustment etc., to guarantee the electric power supply and the smooth development of economy while the policy of the regulation of carbon dioxide emission is in practice.
作者
谢品杰
王梁洪
王绵斌
XIE Pinjie;WANG Lianghong;WANG Mianbin(College of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200082, China;Economic ＆ Technology Research Institute of State Grid Jibei Electric Power Limited Company, Beijing 100045, China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2017年第12期34-40,共7页
Ecological Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目"外商直接投资对我国二氧化碳排放绩效的影响效应研究及政策选择"(71103120)
关键词
一步系统广义矩估计
电力需求
碳排放
地域差异
one-step SYS-GMM
demand for electric power
carbon dioxide emission
regional variation
