摘要
"新常态"下,中国货币政策调控从数量型向价格型转型,同时开放经济下价格型利率政策与汇率政策始终存在两难选择。社会融资规模是宏观经济调控中的关键检测分析指标,是经济发展的金融表现,同时受到数量型货币政策、汇率政策的直接或间接的影响。采用Granger因果关系、协整回归模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法实证检验了货币供应、汇率对社会融资规模的实际影响。检验结论表明,中国数量型货币政策基本能够直接对社会融资规模产生影响,而汇率政策的影响主要是间接的,同时两种政策的影响还存在差异。因此,货币政策调控应兼顾数量型与价格型工具;健全汇率形成机制;将社会融资规模作为宏观调控市场化的指标。
Under the " new normal",China monetary policy regulation is shifting from quantitative type to price-oriented type,and meanwhile price-type interest rate policy and exchange-rate policy have always been a dilemma under the open economy. The scale of social financing is both a key testing and analysis index in macroeconomic regulation and control and a financial performance of economic development,so it is simultaneously influenced directly or indirectly by quantitative monetary policy and exchange rate policy. By adopting Granger causality,cointegration regression model,impulse response function and variance decomposition,this paper empirically tests the actual impact of money supply and exchange rate on the scale of social financing. The testing results show that China's quantitative monetary policy can directly affect the scale of social financing while the impact of exchange rate policy is indirect,and there exist differences in the effects of the two policies. Therefore,it is suggested that the monetary policy adjustment should balance quantitative and price-oriented tools; exchange rate formation mechanism should be perfected; and that social financing scale should be treated as an index of macro-control marketization.
出处
《山东财经大学学报》
2017年第6期35-42,共8页
Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics
基金
山东省自然科学基金项目"山东省农村养老普惠金融指数测度及商业可持续性研究"(ZR2015GM016)
金融产业优化与区域发展管理协同创新中心项目"山东省农村普惠金融运作及风险控制研究"(14xtyb01
14AWTJ01-7)
泰山学者建设工程专项"政府规制与公共政策"
