摘要
在中国人口结构性矛盾日益显现以及国际收支持续失衡的大背景下,从理论层面探讨人口结构等因素对其经常账户收支的影响机制,结合1997—2015年的省际面板数据分别运用面板静态和动态估计方法对理论模型进行检验,所得结果均十分稳健。综合来看,社会总抚养比与经常账户盈余存在显著负相关关系,但地区间也存在较大差异性,其中人口老龄化更为严重的东部地区其社会总抚养比与经常账户盈余的负相关关系较中、西部地区更为显著。因此在计划生育政策的严格约束下,有必要通过户籍制度改革以及城镇化建设来进一步提高相对剩余劳动力供给,同时通过劳动密集型制造业的跨区域转移,提高资源配置效率,进而在较长一段时间内继续保持劳动密集型产品的出口比较优势。
In the background of increasing population structural contradiction in China as well as continuous disequilibrium of balance of payments in the world,the influence mechanism of population structure on its current account balance is explored at the theoretical level. And then the static and dynamic panel estimation methods are applied with the provincial panel data from 1997 to 2015 to test the theoretical model,whose results are stable. In summary,the social total dependency ratio and current account surpluses have a significant negative correlation with great regional differences,the negative correlation between total dependency ratio and current account surplus in the eastern regions,where population aging is more severe,is more significant than that in the middle and west regions. Under the strict constraints of the one-child policy,it is necessary to reform the household registration system and urbanization construction so as to further improve the supply of relative surplus labor. At the same time,through the cross-regional transfer of labor-intensive manufacturing industries,the efficiency of resource allocation will be enhanced and the export comparative advantage of labor-intensive products will be maintained over a longer period of time.
出处
《湘潭大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第6期100-105,共6页
Journal of Xiangtan University:Philosophy And Social Sciences
关键词
经常账户盈余
人口年龄结构
面板数据
current account surplus
the population age structure
panel data
