摘要
利用我国上市公司细分行业的季度面板数据,通过构造向量自回归(VAR)和行业面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,揭示了企业投资理性与托宾Q及其货币供给之间的长期关系。研究发现,企业投资对托宾Q的冲击具有逆向反应,表明我国上市公司投资具有很大的非理性成分。同时,行业管制对托宾Q的阈值效应及反馈方向具有较大的差异,垄断行业及高科技行业投资对托宾Q的反应比较迟缓,过度竞争性行业托宾Q值升高时,企业会倾向于投机性投资。由于货币供给作为一种名义变量,只能在短时间内影响实体经济,并且消退得比较快,长期影响则是中性的,为此必须做到放松管制和行业引导双管齐下。
Using quarterly data of subdivision industries in Chinese listed firms,this paper constructs vector autoregression( VAR)and panel vector autoregression( PVAR) model to reveal the long-term relationship between rationality of enterprises investment,Tobin's Q and money supply. The results show that the enterprises investment reacts adversely to Tobin's Q,which indicates that Chinese listed firms are rather irrational in investment decisions makings. On the other hand,the influence of industry regulation on the threshold effects of Tobin's Q and its feedback directions are quite different,the responses of investment in monopoly and high-tech industries to Tobin's Q are relatively slow,and for over-competitive industries,enterprises tend to take speculative investment when the Tobin's Q rises. Furthermore,the nominal money supply only has a temporary effect on the real economy and this effect dissipates relatively fast,its long-term effect is neutral. Therefore deregulation and industry guidance must be carried out both ways.
出处
《湘潭大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第6期88-93,共6页
Journal of Xiangtan University:Philosophy And Social Sciences
基金
国家社科基金重大项目"支撑未来中国经济增长的新战略区域研究"(项目编号:14ZDA024)
江苏省333人才支持计划项目"供给侧视角下江苏经济运行质量和效益提升路径与机制研究"(项目编号:BRA2017358)
关键词
托宾Q
行业阈值效应
企业投资理性
实体经济
Tobin's Q
threshold effects of industries
rationality of enterprises investment
real economy
