摘要
我国电气火灾发展形势日益迅猛,给人民生产生活带来巨大损失,因此研究电气火灾的发展规律具有现实意义。采用2004—2012年全国电气火灾数据,利用SPSS软件比较不同曲线的拟合情况,最终确定Logistic逻辑增长模型,通过x2检验,判断出曲线拟合优度,得出电气火灾预测公式,并粗略预测出2016年电气火灾发生比例。此模型的建立,可为消防部门了解电气火灾发展规律提供参考。
The number of China＇s electrical fire is increasing rapidly,bringing great losses to people＇s production and life,so to study the law of electrical fire occurrence is of great significance. In this paper,the SPSS software is used to compare the fitting of different curves based on the data of national electrical fires from 2004 to 2012. Finally,a Logistic logic growth model is determined. The goodness of curve fitting is obtained by Chi-square test,and a prediction formula of electrical fires is obtained,which can roughly forecast the proportion of electrical fires in 2016.This model provides a reference for the fire department to understand the law of electrical fire occurrence.
出处
《武警学院学报》
2017年第10期5-8,13,共5页
Journal of the Armed Police Academy
基金
河北省统计科学研究计划项目"大数据背景下城市火灾预测与可视化研究"(2016HY11)阶段性成果
河北省科技计划项目"面向大数据的城市火灾预测关键技术研究"(16215416)阶段性成果
