摘要
柳林泉域岩溶水是当地主要的供水水源,科学合理地对泉流量进行预测对于泉域内岩溶水的开发、利用和保护具有重要意义。在泉流量动态分析的基础上,利用时间序列分析中的移动平均模型和指数平滑模型对柳林泉的还原泉流量进行了预测。结果表明:受自然及人为因素的影响,柳林泉流量长期以来呈现出一定的减小趋势,但其年内的动态变化较为稳定;利用试算法确定了移动平均阶数k=1和平滑系数α=0.9;两种模型的计算结果均较好地拟合了还原泉流量,但指数平滑模型的拟合结果优于移动平均模型的;两个模型预测的2016年还原泉流量均为1.95 m^3/s。
The karst groundwater constitutes major water supply sources for the Liulin spring area. Scientific and reasonable forecasting of spring discharge plays an important role in exploitation,utilization and protection of karst groundwater. According to the analysis of regime for spring discharge,the moving average model and exponential smoothing model in time series methods were employed to forecast revised spring discharge of the Liulin spring. The results show that inter-annual spring discharge has a long decreasing trend influenced by natural and human factors,while the discharge is stable within a year; the steps of moving average( k = 1) and smoothing factor( α = 0.9) are determined by trial and error method; the forecasting results both fit revised spring discharge better,and the results for exponential smoothing mode is better than that of moving average model; the final results of two models for revised spring discharge both are 1.95 m^3/s in 2016.
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2017年第11期99-102,共4页
Yellow River
关键词
还原泉流量
流量预测
指数平滑模型
移动平均模型
柳林泉域
revised spring discharge
forecasting of spring discharge
exponential smoothing model
moving average model
Liulin Spring area
