摘要
在分析台州人口发展现状的基础上,以2010年第六次全国人口普查相关统计数据为依据,应用国际人口预测软件(PADIS-INT)对台州市人口规模及其年龄结构进行预测,得出了全面二孩政策对人口结构改变无实质性影响、人口总量先上升后下降、老龄化不断加深、人口红利逐步消失、城镇化水平稳步提高的结论,据此提出了采取适当提高生育水平、积极应对人口老龄化、充分挖掘人口红利、加大人力资本投资、合理引导人口流动和布局的对策建议。
Based on the analysis of the current situation of population development in Taizhou andthe relevant statistical data of the sixth national census in 2010, the international population forecast-ing software(PADIS-INT) is used to predict the population size and age structure of Taizhou popula-tion. The comprehensive two-children policy has no substantive effect on the change of populationstructure. The total population will increase first and then decrease, and the aging rate is graduallydeepened, the demographic dividend gradually disappears and the level of urbanization will be im-proved steadily. Accordingly, it puts forward suggestion as moderately increasing birth level, respondingto the aging of the population, fully exploiting the demographic dividend, increasing the investment ofhuman capital, and guiding the population flow and layout.
出处
《台州学院学报》
2017年第4期31-37,共7页
Journal of Taizhou University
关键词
人口规模
人口结构
老龄化
城镇化率
population size
population structure
aging
urbanization rate
