摘要
2008年全球金融危机对世界经济和各主要中央银行的政策实践产生了深远影响,同时也导致了宏观经济周期理论的重大变革,促使金融经济周期理论的诞生和发展。本文构建了一个清晰的金融经济周期理论分析框架,并运用我国实际经济数据对模型中的结构参数和外生冲击过程进行了校准和贝叶斯估计,同时展示了这一分析框架在我国经济分析中的三个具体应用,结果发现:(1)信贷冲击是驱动我国经济周期波动的重要力量;(2)减少信贷摩擦能够平抑我国的经济波动,并且扩大货币政策的操作空间;(3)模型对CPI的预测结果与真实数据拟合程度非常高。
The global financial crisis in 2008 had profound and long-term influence on global economies and policy behaviors of major central banks and also caused a major reform of macroeconomic business cycle theory, leading to the birth and development of financial business cycle theory. The paperwill construct a clear analytical framework of financial business cycle theoryand evaluate the structural parameters with the real economic data of China and Bayesian evaluation method. The paper applies this analytical framework to analyze the economy of China in three specific aspects and finds ： （1 ） credit shock is an important power to drive economic fluctuations o f China; （2 ） we can restrain economic fluctuations and expand the operating space of monetary policy by reducing credit frictions; （3） the fore-casting value of CPI by using this model matched a lot to the real economic data.
出处
《金融发展研究》
北大核心
2017年第7期3-10,共8页
Journal Of Financial Development Research
关键词
金融经济周期
信贷约束
信贷冲击
DSGE模型
financial business cycle, credit constraints, credit shocks, DSGE models
