摘要
高渗透率光伏系统接入配电网,会对配电网的稳定运行带来一定影响,也为配电网的负荷预测工作增加了难度,因此需要配置合理的储能装置来保证配电网的稳定运行。针对此,基于预测负荷区间概率,结合在一定渗透率下的光伏出力曲线,提出一种储能容量配置的新方法。该方法对往年的年最大负荷曲线进行区间划分,得出相应的区间概率,采用加权拟合法来预测未来年的年最大负荷以及区间概率,将年最大负荷区间的下限作为配电容量,区间概率作为风险系数,高于配电容量的净负荷由储能装置进行补偿。利用削峰填谷的原理提出一种含光伏出力的储能容量配置方法,为结合储能的光伏系统接入配电网规划工作提供新的思路。
Access of the high permeability photovoltaic （PV） system into the power distribution network affects stable opera-tion of the grid and increases difficulty in load forecasting. Therefore, it is required to allocate reasonable storage energy de-vice to ensure stable operation of the power distribution network. On the basis of interval probability of forecasting load and combining with PV output curve with a certain permeability, this paper presents a new configuration method for storage en-ergy capacity. This method divides yearly maximum load curves of the former years into different intervaresponding interval probabilitid. By using weighted fitting method, this method predicts the yearly maximum load of the fu-ture year and its interval probability, then takes the lower limit of the yearly maximum and the interval probability as the risk coefficien. Meanwhile, it compensates the net load higher than by the storage energy device. The paper also uses peak-load shifting principles to propenergy capacity with PV output which can provide new ideas for planning work of PV system into the power distribution network.
出处
《广东电力》
2017年第10期52-56,共5页
Guangdong Electric Power
关键词
负荷预测
光伏系统
渗透率
储能容量
load forecasting
photovoltaic system
permeability
storage energy capacity
